相关论文: A Unified Bayesian Framework for Mortality Model S…

A central problem in analyzing networks is partitioning them into modules or communities. One of the best tools for this is the stochastic block model, which clusters vertices into blocks with statistically homogeneous pattern of links.…

Bayesian analysis often concerns an evaluation of models with different dimensionality as is necessary in, for example, model selection or mixture models. To facilitate this evaluation, transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for…

We propose a novel approach to model selection for simulator-based statistical models. The proposed approach defines a mixture of candidate models, and then iteratively updates the weight coefficients for those models as well as the…

We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…

Computer simulations have become an important tool across the biomedical sciences and beyond. For many important problems several different models or hypotheses exist and choosing which one best describes reality or observed data is not…

We consider the problem of constructing an adaptive bridge regression modeling, which is a penalized procedure by imposing different weights to different coefficients in the bridge penalty term. A crucial issue in the modeling process is…

High-throughput characterization often requires estimating parameters and model dimension from experimental data of limited quantity and quality. Such data may result in an ill-posed inverse problem, where multiple sets of parameters and…

Multiple Classifier Systems (MCSs) allow evaluation of the uncertainty of classification outcomes that is of crucial importance for safety critical applications. The uncertainty of classification is determined by a trade-off between the…

We investigate jointly modeling Age-specific rates of various causes of death in a multinational setting. We apply Multi-Output Gaussian Processes (MOGP), a spatial machine learning method, to smooth and extrapolate multiple cause-of-death…

Bayesian regression trees are flexible non-parametric models that are well suited to many modern statistical regression problems. Many such tree models have been proposed, from the simple single- tree model to more complex tree ensembles.…

With the advance of experimental techniques such as time-lapse fluorescence microscopy, the availability of single-cell trajectory data has vastly increased, and so has the demand for computational methods suitable for parameter inference…

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Model averaging combines forecasts obtained from a range of models, and it often produces more accurate forecasts than a forecast from a single model. The crucial part of forecast accuracy improvement in using the model averaging lies in…

A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

Joint models (JMs) for longitudinal and time-to-event data are an important class of biostatistical models in health and medical research. When the study population consists of heterogeneous subgroups, the standard JM may be inadequate and…

We develop a simple and unified framework for nonlinear variable selection that incorporates uncertainty in the prediction function and is compatible with a wide range of machine learning models (e.g., tree ensembles, kernel methods, neural…

Competing risk models are survival models with several events of interest acting in competition and whose occurrence is only observed for the event that occurs first in time. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to these models in which…

We develop tools to do valid post-selective inference for a family of model selection procedures, including choosing a model via cross-validated Lasso. The tools apply universally when the following random vectors are jointly asymptotically…