相关论文: A Unified Bayesian Framework for Mortality Model S…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Bayesian hierarchical linear models provide a natural framework to analyze nested and clustered data. Classical estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo produces well calibrated posterior distributions but becomes computationally expensive…

Model averaging techniques in the actuarial literature aim to forecast future longevity appropriately by combining forecasts derived from various models. This approach often yields more accurate predictions than those generated by a single…

This paper explores the versatility and depth of Bayesian modeling by presenting a comprehensive range of applications and methods, combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques and variational approximations. Covering topics such as…

A general Bayesian framework for model selection on random network models regarding their features is considered. The goal is to develop a principle Bayesian model selection approach to compare different fittable, not necessarily nested,…

Procedural material models have been gaining traction in many applications thanks to their flexibility, compactness, and easy editability. We explore the inverse rendering problem of procedural material parameter estimation from…

We provide a flexible framework for selecting among a class of additive partial linear models that allows both linear and nonlinear additive components. In practice, it is challenging to determine which additive components should be…

Uncertainty of decisions in safety-critical engineering applications can be estimated on the basis of the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique of averaging over decision models. The use of decision tree (DT) models assists…

Joint models (JM) for longitudinal and survival data have gained increasing interest and found applications in a wide range of clinical and biomedical settings. These models facilitate the understanding of the relationship between outcomes…

Bayesian averaging over classification models allows the uncertainty of classification outcomes to be evaluated, which is of crucial importance for making reliable decisions in applications such as financial in which risks have to be…

We introduce a Loss Discounting Framework for model and forecast combination which generalises and combines Bayesian model synthesis and generalized Bayes methodologies. We use a loss function to score the performance of different models…

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal…

Social contact matrices are essential tools in infectious disease epidemiology as they quantify close-range human contact patterns which directly drive the transmission of airborne infectious diseases. In this work we propose a Bayesian…

Theory of graphical models has matured over more than three decades to provide the backbone for several classes of models that are used in a myriad of applications such as genetic mapping of diseases, credit risk evaluation, reliability and…

Phylogenetic analyses which include fossils or molecular sequences that are sampled through time require models that allow one sample to be a direct ancestor of another sample. As previously available phylogenetic inference tools assume…

Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

This paper deals with inference and prediction for multiple correlated time series, where one has also the choice of using a candidate pool of contemporaneous predictors for each target series. Starting with a structural model for the…

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in…

In this work, we propose a modified Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) specifically designed for mixture models and hierarchical structures. This criterion incorporates the determinant of the Hessian matrix of the log-likelihood function,…