相关论文: A Unified Bayesian Framework for Mortality Model S…

When building statistical models for Bayesian data analysis tasks, required and optional iterative adjustments and different modelling choices can give rise to numerous candidate models. In particular, checks and evaluations throughout the…

Joint modeling of longitudinal and survival data has become increasingly important in medical research, particularly for understanding disease progression in chronic conditions where both repeated biomarker measurements and time-to-event…

This work introduces a new method designed for Bayesian deep learning called scalable Bayesian Monte Carlo (SBMC). The method is comprised of a model and an algorithm. The model interpolates between a point estimator and the posterior. The…

We consider the modeling of data generated by a latent continuous-time Markov jump process with a state space of finite but unknown dimensions. Typically in such models, the number of states has to be pre-specified, and Bayesian inference…

We propose a general algorithmic framework for Bayesian model selection. A spike-and-slab Laplacian prior is introduced to model the underlying structural assumption. Using the notion of effective resistance, we derive an EM-type algorithm…

Raking is widely used in categorical data modeling and survey practice but faced with methodological and computational challenges. We develop a Bayesian paradigm for raking by incorporating the marginal constraints as a prior distribution…

There are many issues that can cause problems when attempting to infer model parameters from data. Data and models are both imperfect, and as such there are multiple scenarios in which standard methods of inference will lead to misleading…

Bayesian variable selection requires sampling from a posterior distribution that combines discrete model indicators with continuously varying parameters, a challenge often addressed through reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC).…

Bayesian model selection is premised on the assumption that the data are generated from one of the postulated models. However, in many applications, all of these models are incorrect (that is, there is misspecification). When the models are…

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

Improving health worldwide will require rigorous quantification of population-level trends in health status. However, global-level surveys are not available, forcing researchers to rely on fragmentary country-specific data of varying…

The critical slip distance in rate and state model for fault friction in the study of potential earthquakes can vary wildly from micrometers to few meters depending on the length scale of the critically stressed fault. This makes it…

In biomedical settings, multitype recurrent events such as stroke and heart failure occur frequently, often concluding with a terminal event such as death. Understanding the links between these recurring and terminal events is fundamental…

In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…

Specifying a full Bayesian model that integrates multiple data sources can be challenging. One natural approach is to specify each individual model separately and join them afterwards. This is the approach adopted in Markov melding.…

We introduce a model-agnostic procedure to construct prediction intervals for the age distribution of deaths. The age distribution of deaths is an example of constrained data, which are nonnegative and have a constrained integral. A…

Survival analysis is an important area of medical research, yet existing models often struggle to balance simplicity with flexibility. Simple models require minimal adjustments but come with strong assumptions, while more flexible models…

Bayesian inference under a set of priors, called robust Bayesian analysis, allows for estimation of parameters within a model and quantification of epistemic uncertainty in quantities of interest by bounded (or imprecise) probability.…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…