相关论文: Modelling and prediction of the wildfire data usin…

This paper introduces the Generalized Fractional Compound Poisson Process (GFCPP), which claims to be a unified fractional version of the compound Poisson process (CPP) that encompasses existing variations as special cases. We derive its…

Many astrophysical phenomena are time-varying, in the sense that their intensity, energy spectrum, and/or the spatial distribution of the emission suddenly change. This paper develops a method for modeling a time series of images. Under the…

Recent increase in wildfires worldwide has led to the need for real-time fire nowcasting. Physics-driven models, such as cellular automata and computational fluid dynamics can provide high-fidelity fire spread simulations but they are…

In this paper, a Bayesian method for piecewise regression is adapted to handle counting processes data distributed as Poisson. A numerical code in Mathematica is developed and tested analyzing simulated data. The resulting method is…

In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also…

Feature selection procedures for spatial point processes parametric intensity estimation have been recently developed since more and more applications involve a large number of covariates. In this paper, we investigate the setting where the…

The paper considers a Cox process where the stochastic intensity function for the Poisson data model is itself a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We show that it is possible to obtain the marginal data process, namely a non-homogeneous…

In this work we introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian change-point model, defining its time dynamic as a latent Markov process based on the Dirichlet process. We treat the number of change point as a random variable and we estimate it during…

Wildfires are highly imbalanced natural hazards in both space and severity, making the prediction of extreme events particularly challenging. In this work, we introduce the first ordinal classification framework for forecasting wildfire…

Wildland fire dynamics is a complex turbulent dimensional process. Cellular automata (CA) is an efficient tool to predict fire dynamics, but the main parameters of the method are challenging to estimate. To overcome this challenge, we…

Wildfires increasingly threaten human life, ecosystems, and infrastructure, with events like the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles County underscoring the urgent need for more advanced prediction frameworks. Existing…

The 2019-20 Australia bushfire incurred numerous economic losses and significantly affected the operations of power systems. A power station or transmission line can be significantly affected due to bushfires, leading to an increase in…

The study of post-wildfire plant regrowth is essential for developing successful ecosystem recovery strategies. Prior research mainly examines key ecological and biogeographical factors influencing post-fire succession. This research…

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some…

We study online change point detection for multivariate inhomogeneous Poisson point process time series. This setting arises commonly in applications such as earthquake seismology, climate monitoring, and epidemic surveillance, yet remains…

In this article, we derive the state probabilities of different type of space- and time-fractional Poisson processes using z-transform. We work on tempered versions of time-fractional Poisson process and space-fractional Poisson processes.…

The negative binomial distribution has been widely used as a more flexible model than the Poisson distribution for count data. However, when the true data-generating process is Poisson, it is often challenging to distinguish it from a…

We generate the fractional Poisson process by subordinating the standard Poisson process to the inverse stable subordinator. Our analysis is based on application of the Laplace transform with respect to both arguments of the evolving…

The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a detector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise…

This work introduces and compares approaches for estimating rare-event probabilities related to the number of edges in the random geometric graph on a Poisson point process. In the one-dimensional setting, we derive closed-form expressions…