相关论文: Transmission Line Outage Probability Prediction Un…
We use observed transmission line outage data to make a Markov influence graph that describes the probabilities of transitions between generations of cascading line outages, where each generation of a cascade consists of a single line…
Generative probabilistic forecasting produces future time series samples according to the conditional probability distribution given past time series observations. Such techniques are essential in risk-based decision-making and planning…
This paper addresses the problem of outage characterization of an ambient backscatter communication system with a pair of passive tag and reader. In particular, an exact expression for the effective channel distribution is derived. Then,…
This paper proposes a novel methodology for probabilistic dynamic security assessment and enhancement of power systems that considers load and generation variability, N-2 contingencies, and uncertain cascade propagation caused by uncertain…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…
Increasing shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources induce higher and higher power flow variability at the transmission level. The question arises as to what extent existing networks can absorb additional fluctuating power injection…
We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…
In this manuscript we continue the thread of [M. Chertkov, F. Pan, M. Stepanov, Predicting Failures in Power Grids: The Case of Static Overloads, IEEE Smart Grid 2011] and suggest a new algorithm discovering most probable extreme stochastic…
With the increasing frequency of natural disasters, operators must prioritize improvements in the existing electric power grid infrastructure to enhance the resilience of the grid. Resilience to extreme weather events necessitates lowering…
We develop upper bounds for line failure probabilities in power grids, under the DC approximation and assuming Gaussian noise for the power injections. Our upper bounds are explicit, and lead to characterization of safe operational capacity…
Prompt and effective corrective actions in response to unexpected contingencies are crucial for improving power system resilience and preventing cascading blackouts. The optimal load shedding (OLS) accounting for network limits has the…
Power system outages expose market participants to significant financial risk unless promptly detected and hedged. We develop an outage identification method from public market signals grounded in the parametric quickest change detection…
In this work, we propose a non-parametric probabilistic load flow (NP-PLF) technique based on the Gaussian Process (GP) learning to understand the power system behavior under uncertainty for better operational decisions. The technique can…
Accurately forecasting power outages is a complex task influenced by diverse factors such as weather conditions [1], vegetation, wildlife, and load fluctuations. These factors introduce substantial variability and noise into outage data,…
During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially…
We discuss ways to measure duration in a power transmission system resilience event by modeling outage and restore processes from utility data. We introduce novel Poisson process models that describe how resilience events progress and…
Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…
The size distribution of planned and forced outages and following restoration times in power systems have been studied for almost two decades and has drawn great interest as they display heavy tails. Understanding of this phenomenon has…
We propose a new method to estimate a root-directed spanning tree from extreme data. A prominent example is a river network, to be discovered from extreme flow measured at a set of stations. Our new algorithm utilizes qualitative aspects of…