相关论文: Modeling human decomposition: a Bayesian approach

We consider the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a finite mixture model from independent order statistics arising from imperfect ranked set sampling designs. As a cost-effective method, ranked set sampling enables us to incorporate…

Bayesian model selection poses two main challenges: the specification of parameter priors for all models, and the computation of the resulting Bayes factors between models. There is now a large literature on automatic and objective…

This paper proposes probabilistic conformal prediction (PCP), a predictive inference algorithm that estimates a target variable by a discontinuous predictive set. Given inputs, PCP construct the predictive set based on random samples from…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

In many inverse problems, model parameters cannot be precisely determined from observational data. Bayesian inference provides a mechanism for capturing the resulting parameter uncertainty, but typically at a high computational cost. This…

Statistical models often require inputs that are not completely known. This can occur when inputs are measured with error, indirectly, or when they are predicted using another model. In environmental epidemiology, air pollution exposure is…

The Partial Information Decomposition (PID) [arXiv:1004.2515] provides a theoretical framework to characterize and quantify the structure of multivariate information sharing. A new method (Idep) has recently been proposed for computing a…

Causal decomposition depicts a cause-effect relationship that is not based on the concept of prediction, but based on the phase dependence of time series. It has been validated in both stochastic and deterministic systems and is now…

Representations of population models in terms of countable systems of particles are constructed, in which each particle has a `type', typically recording both spatial position and genetic type, and a level. For finite intensity models, the…

The multiplicative decomposition model is widely employed for predicting residual stresses and morphologies of biological tissues due to growth. However, it relies on the assumption that the tissue is initially in a stress-free state, which…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model for mixed-type bounded data, where some variables are compositional and others are interval-bounded. Compositional variables are non-negative and sum to a given constant, such as the proportion of…

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…

In the event of a nuclear accident, or the detonation of a radiological dispersal device, quickly locating the source of the accident or blast is important for emergency response and environmental decontamination. At a specified time after…

In many applications, it is of interest to assess the dependence structure in multivariate longitudinal data. Discovering such dependence is challenging due to the dimensionality involved. By concatenating the random effects from component…

Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially when modelling small-area disease incidence data in an ecological study design. The challenge comes from the unobserved underlying spatial…

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Predictive mean matching (PMM) is a popular imputation strategy that imputes missing values by borrowing observed values from other cases with similar expectations. We show that, unlike other imputation strategies, PMM is not guaranteed to…

An informative sampling design leads to unit inclusion probabilities that are correlated with the response variable of interest. However, multistage sampling designs may also induce higher order dependencies, which are typically ignored in…

We propose a multistage method for making inference at all levels of a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) using natural data partitions to increase efficiency by allowing computations to take place in parallel form using software that is…