相关论文: Stochastic Loss Reserving: Dependence and Estimati…

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…

In the near future, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) technologies will be capable of overcoming the drawbacks in the current maintenance and life-cycle management paradigms, namely: cost, increased downtime, less-than-optimal safety…

Trade credit insurance (TCI) is a specialized line of property and casualty insurance, protecting businesses against financial losses due to buyer's insolvency. Predictive modeling for TCI claims poses formidable challenges due to the…

Under the Solvency II regime, life insurance companies are asked to derive their solvency capital requirements from the full loss distributions over the coming year. Since the industry is currently far from being endowed with sufficient…

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) encompass large class of statistical models, with a vast range of applications areas. GLMM extends the linear mixed models allowing for different types of response variable. Three most common data…

A Bayesian method of moments/instrumental variable (BMOM/IV) approach is developed and applied in the analysis of the important mean and multiple regression models. Given a single set of data, it is shown how to obtain posterior and…

Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework…

This paper presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) for loss reserving in a non-life insurance company. Because in this case the error of prediction is expressed by a complex analytical formula, the error bootstrap…

Aggregate shocks affect most households' and firms' decisions. Using three stylized models we show that inference based on cross-sectional data alone generally fails to correctly account for decision making of rational agents facing…

The conditional mean risk-sharing (CMRS) rule is an important tool for distributing aggregate losses across individual risks, but its implementation in continuous multivariate models typically requires complicated multidimensional…

In this work, we investigate Gaussian Mixture Models ({\it abbrv} GMM) and the related problem of non parametric maximum likelihood estimation ({\it abbrv} NPMLE) from the perspective of statistical mechanics. In particular, we establish…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

Latent Gaussian Models (LGMs) are a subset of Bayesian Hierarchical models where Gaussian priors, conditional on variance parameters, are assigned to all effects in the model. LGMs are employed in many fields for their flexibility and…

We use a generic framework, namely the gradient discretisation method (GDM), to propose a unified numerical analysis for general time-dependent convection-diffusion-reaction models. We establish novel results for convergence rates of…

We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…

Linear mixed models (LMMs) are used as an important tool in the data analysis of repeated measures and longitudinal studies. The most common form of LMMs utilize a normal distribution to model the random effects. Such assumptions can often…

We introduce a new estimator, CRE-GMM, which exploits the correlated random effects (CRE) approach within the generalised method of moments (GMM), specifically applied to level equations, GMM-lev. It has the advantage of estimating the…

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a popular model for capturing community structure and interaction within a network. Network data with non-Boolean edge weights is becoming commonplace; however, existing analysis methods convert such data…

Claim reserving in insurance has been studied through two primary frameworks: the macro-level approach, which estimates reserves at an aggregate level (e.g., Chain-Ladder), and the micro-level approach, which estimates reserves at the…

Restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) are energy-based models analogous to the Ising model and are widely applied in statistical machine learning. The standard inverse Ising problem with a complete dataset requires computing both data and…