相关论文: Stochastic Loss Reserving: Dependence and Estimati…

Estimation and inference on causal parameters is typically reduced to a generalized method of moments problem, which involves auxiliary functions that correspond to solutions to a regression or classification problem. Recent line of work on…

The examination of uncertainty in the predictions of machine learning (ML) models is receiving increasing attention. One uncertainty modeling technique used for this purpose is Monte-Carlo (MC)-Dropout, where repeated predictions are…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) form one of the most popular classes of models in statistics. The gamma variant is used, for instance, in actuarial science for the modelling of claim amounts in insurance. A flaw of GLMs is that they are…

In this paper, we propose a method based on GMM (the generalized method of moments) to estimate the parameters of stable distributions with $0<\alpha<2$. We don't assume symmetry for stable distributions.

We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for…

To obtain a probabilistic model for a dependent variable based on some set of explanatory variables, a distributional approach is often adopted where the parameters of the distribution are linked to regressors. In many classical models this…

We propose an extension of Markov-switching generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape (MS-GAMLSS) that allows covariates to influence not only the parameters of the state-dependent distributions but also the state…

Regression models for limited continuous dependent variables having a non-negligible probability of attaining exactly their limits are presented. The models differ in the number of parameters and in their flexibility. Fractional data being…

This paper is concerned with forecast error, particularly in relation to loss reserving. This is generally regarded as consisting of three components, namely parameter, process and model errors. The first two of these components, and their…

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) with a computationally feasible surrogate loss is a widely accepted approach for classification. Notably, the convexity and calibration (CC) properties of a loss function ensure consistency of ERM in…

Understanding and measuring model risk is important to financial practitioners. However, there lacks a non-parametric approach to model risk quantification in a dynamic setting and with path-dependent losses. We propose a complete theory…

We propose a random-effects approach to missing values for generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analysis. The method converts a GLMM with missing covariates to another GLMM without missing covariates. The standard GLMM analysis tools for…

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

Prediction uncertainty quantification is a key research topic in recent years scientific and business problems. In insurance industries (\cite{parodi2023pricing}), assessing the range of possible claim costs for individual drivers improves…

Optimizing risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a general loss distribution is usually difficult, because 1) the loss function might lack structural properties such as convexity or…

We propose new parametric frameworks of regression analysis with the conditional mode of a bounded response as the focal point of interest. Covariate effects estimation and prediction based on the maximum likelihood method under two new…

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are routinely used for modeling relationships between a response variable and a set of covariates. The simple form of a GLM comes with easy interpretability, but also leads to concerns about model…

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) have emerged as a promising interpretable method whose final prediction is based on intermediate, human-understandable concepts rather than the raw input. Through time-consuming manual interventions, a user…

Ensemble methods are among the state-of-the-art predictive modeling approaches. Applied to modern big data, these methods often require a large number of sub-learners, where the complexity of each learner typically grows with the size of…

This paper proposes a simple and efficient estimation procedure for the model with non-ignorable missing data studied by Morikawa and Kim (2016). Their semiparametrically efficient estimator requires explicit nonparametric estimation and so…