相关论文: Empirical Bayes estimation via data fission

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Individual-based models of contagious processes are useful for predicting epidemic trajectories and informing intervention strategies. In such models, the incorporation of contact network information can capture the non-randomness and…

In recent years important progress has been achieved towards proving the validity of the replica predictions for the (asymptotic) mutual information (or "free energy") in Bayesian inference problems. The proof techniques that have emerged…

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be…

Generating synthetic datasets that accurately reflect real-world observational data is critical for evaluating causal estimators, but it remains a challenging task. Existing generative methods offer a solution by producing synthetic…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…

Conventional approximations to Bayesian inference rely on either approximations by statistics such as mean and covariance or by point particles. Recent advances such as the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter have generalized these notions to…

Model-assisted estimation with complex survey data is an important practical problem in survey sampling. When there are many auxiliary variables, selecting significant variables associated with the study variable would be necessary to…

We consider Bayesian algorithm execution (BAX), a framework for efficiently selecting evaluation points of an expensive function to infer a property of interest encoded as the output of a base algorithm. Since the base algorithm typically…

This introduction to Bayesian statistics presents the main concepts as well as the principal reasons advocated in favour of a Bayesian modelling. We cover the various approaches to prior determination as well as the basis asymptotic…

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

The vast majority of network datasets contains errors and omissions, although this is rarely incorporated in traditional network analysis. Recently, an increasing effort has been made to fill this methodological gap by developing network…

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

In this paper, we consider objective Bayesian inference of the generalized exponential distribution using the independence Jeffreys prior and validate the propriety of the posterior distribution under a family of structured priors. We…

Gaussian processes that can be decomposed into a smooth mean function and a stationary autocorrelated noise process are considered and a fully automatic nonparametric method to simultaneous estimation of mean and auto-covariance functions…

It is argued that the Calibrated Bayesian (CB) approach to statistical inference capitalizes on the strength of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. In the CB approach, inferences under a particular model are…

Bayesian inference is used to estimate continuous parameter values given measured data in many fields of science. The method relies on conditional probability densities to describe information about both data and parameters, yet the notion…

Empirical Bayes methods are widely used for large-scale inference, yet most classical approaches assume homoscedastic observations and focus primarily on posterior mean estimation. We develop a nonparametric empirical Bayes framework for…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

Biological systems commonly exhibit complex spatiotemporal patterns whose underlying generative mechanisms pose a significant analytical challenge. Traditional approaches to spatiodynamic inference rely on dimensionality reduction through…