相关论文: Empirical Bayes estimation via data fission

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

The simultaneous estimation of multiple unknown parameters lies at heart of a broad class of important problems across science and technology. Currently, the state-of-the-art performance in the such problems is achieved by nonparametric…

While observational data are routinely used to estimate causal effects of biomedical treatments, doing so requires special methods to adjust for observed confounding. These methods invariably rely on untestable statistical and causal…

Bayes factors for composite hypotheses have difficulty in encoding vague prior knowledge, as improper priors cannot be used and objective priors may be subjectively unreasonable. To address these issues I revisit the posterior Bayes factor,…

We propose a new method for conducting Bayesian prediction that delivers accurate predictions without correctly specifying the unknown true data generating process. A prior is defined over a class of plausible predictive models. After…

Data assimilation, in its most comprehensive form, addresses the Bayesian inverse problem of identifying plausible state trajectories that explain noisy or incomplete observations of stochastic dynamical systems. Various approaches have…

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and…

Logistic regression involving high-dimensional covariates is a practically important problem. Often the goal is variable selection, i.e., determining which few of the many covariates are associated with the binary response. Unfortunately,…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Entropy is a measure of heterogeneity widely used in applied sciences, often when data are collected over space. Recently, a number of approaches has been proposed to include spatial information in entropy. The aim of entropy is to…

The reconstruction from observations of high-dimensional chaotic dynamics such as geophysical flows is hampered by (i) the partial and noisy observations that can realistically be obtained, (ii) the need to learn from long time series of…

We consider a joint processing of $n$ independent sparse regression problems. Each is based on a sample $(y_{i1},x_{i1})...,(y_{im},x_{im})$ of $m$ \iid observations from $y_{i1}=x_{i1}\t\beta_i+\eps_{i1}$, $y_{i1}\in \R$, $x_{i 1}\in\R^p$,…

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and related technologies have generated substantial interest among statisticians with regard to scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets. A variety of scalable spatial process models…

To estimate accurately the parameters of a regression model, the sample size must be large enough relative to the number of possible predictors for the model. In practice, sufficient data is often lacking, which can lead to overfitting of…

According to different typologies of activity and priority, risks can assume diverse meanings and it can be assessed in different ways. In general risk is measured in terms of a probability combination of an event (frequency) and its…

In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…

We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that…

We provide four case studies that use Bayesian machinery to making inductive reasoning. Our main motivation relies in offering several instances where the Bayesian approach to data analysis is exploited at its best to perform complex tasks,…

We propose a meta-learning approach that learns from multiple tasks in a transductive setting, by leveraging the unlabeled query set in addition to the support set to generate a more powerful model for each task. To develop our framework,…