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We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2007-08-14 Andrei Gabrielov , Vladimir Keilis-Borok , Ilya Zaliapin

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We introduce a dissipative particle dynamics scheme for the dynamics of non-ideal fluids. Given a free-energy density that determines the thermodynamics of the system, we derive consistent conservative forces. The use of these effective,…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2009-11-07 I. Pagonabarraga , D. Frenkel

Analytical models for common envelope evolution (CEE), particularly the energy formalism, are used in binary population synthesis to predict post-CEE configurations. This formalism is based on an efficiency parameter alpha, which relates…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2025-12-16 Sarah V. Borges

This survey summarizes and illustrates the main qualitative properties of hydrodynamics models for collective behavior. These models include a velocity consensus term together with attractive-repulsive potentials leading to non-trivial…

偏微分方程分析 · 数学 2020-10-05 José A. Carrillo , Young-Pil Choi , Sergio P. Perez

Common envelope evolution, the key orbital tightening phase of the traditional formation channel for close binaries, is a multistage process that presents many challenges to the establishment of a fully descriptive, predictive theoretical…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2020-08-20 Rosa Wallace Everson , Morgan MacLeod , Soumi De , Phillip Macias , Enrico Ramirez-Ruiz

Common envelope evolution (CEE) is presently a poorly understood, yet critical, process in binary stellar evolution. Characterizing the full 3D dynamics of CEE is difficult in part because simulating CEE is so computationally demanding.…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2018-08-01 Luke Chamandy , Adam Frank , Eric G. Blackman , Jonathan Carroll-Nellenback , Baowei Liu , Yisheng Tu , Jason Nordhaus , Zhuo Chen , Bo Peng

Quantifying emergence and modeling emergent dynamics in a data-driven manner for complex dynamical systems is challenging due to the lack of direct observations at the micro-level. Thus, it's crucial to develop a framework to identify…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2024-08-16 Mingzhe Yang , Zhipeng Wang , Kaiwei Liu , Yingqi Rong , Bing Yuan , Jiang Zhang

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-17 Aryan Eftekhari , Doris Folini , Aleksandra Friedl , Felix Kübler , Simon Scheidegger , Olaf Schenk

Common-envelope events (CEEs), during which two stars temporarily orbit within a shared envelope, are believed to be vital for the formation of a wide range of close binaries. For decades, the only evidence that CEEs actually occur has been…

高能天体物理现象 · 物理学 2015-03-13 N. Ivanova , S. Justham , J. L. Avendano Nandez , J. C. Lombardi

In this work, we try to use the apparent luminosity versus displacement (i.e., $L_{\rm X}$ vs. $R$) correlation of high mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs) to constrain the common envelope (CE) efficiency $\alpha_{\rm CE}$, which is a key parameter…

高能天体物理现象 · 物理学 2015-06-19 Zhao-Yu Zuo , Xiang-Dong Li

Modeling distributions of covariates, or density estimation, is a core challenge in unsupervised learning. However, the majority of work only considers the joint distribution, which has limited utility in practical situations. A more…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-28 Ryan R. Strauss , Junier B. Oliva

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-04-30 Kamal Gasser , Johan Segers , Francesco Ragone

Common envelope evolution (CEE) is believed to be an important stage in the evolution of binary/multiple stellar systems. Following this stage, the CE is thought to be ejected, leaving behind a compact binary (or a merger product). Although…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2021-08-10 Hila Glanz , Hagai B. Perets

Renewable energy power is influenced by the atmospheric system, which exhibits nonlinear and time-varying features. To address this, a dynamic temporal correlation modeling framework is proposed for renewable energy scenario generation. A…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-27 Xiaochong Dong , Yilin Liu , Xuemin Zhang , Shengwei Mei

The recently introduced concept of generalized thermodynamics is explored here in the context of 1d, 2d and 3d data analysis, performed on samples drawn from a 3d X-ray soil sample image. Different threshold levels are used to binarize the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2026-01-16 Borko Stosic

The energy budget in common-envelope events (CEEs) is not well understood, with substantial uncertainty even over to what extent the recombination energy stored in ionised hydrogen and helium might be used to help envelope ejection. We…

太阳与恒星天体物理 · 物理学 2015-06-22 N. Ivanova , S. Justham , Ph. Podsiadlowski

We investigate the dynamics and thermodynamics of a framework composed of interacting units in which parameters (temperatures and energies) assume distinct values due to the contact with distinct (cold and hot) thermal reservoirs. The…

统计力学 · 物理学 2025-08-13 Iago N. Mamede , Vitória T. Henkes , Carlos E. Fiore

We propose a new way of investigating phase transitions in the context of information theory. We use an information-entropic measure of spatial complexity known as configurational entropy (CE) to quantify both the storage and exchange of…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-03-23 Damian Sowinski , Marcelo Gleiser

Continuous-time optimization models have successfully been used to capture the impact of ramping limitations in power systems. In this paper, the continuous-time framework is adapted to model flexible hydropower resources interacting with…