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We study causal inference in randomized experiments (or quasi-experiments) following a $2\times 2$ factorial design. There are two treatments, denoted $A$ and $B$, and units are randomly assigned to one of four categories: treatment $A$…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-12 Mate Kormos , Robert P. Lieli , Martin Huber

An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-06-02 Kay H. Brodersen , Fabian Gallusser , Jim Koehler , Nicolas Remy , Steven L. Scott

Advances in wearables and digital technology now make it possible to deliver behavioral mobile health interventions to individuals in their everyday life. The micro-randomized trial (MRT) is increasingly used to provide data to inform the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-30 Tianchen Qian , Hyesun Yoo , Predrag Klasnja , Daniel Almirall , Susan A. Murphy

Supervised causal learning has shown promise in causal discovery, yet it often struggles with generalization across diverse interventional settings, particularly when intervention targets are unknown. To address this, we propose TICL…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Wei Chen , Rui Ding , Bojun Huang , Yang Zhang , Qiang Fu , Yuxuan Liang , Han Shi , Dongmei Zhang

Treatment switching in a randomized controlled trial is said to occur when a patient randomized to one treatment arm switches to another treatment arm during follow-up. This can occur at the point of disease progression, whereby patients in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-24 Andrew Ying , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

There is an increasing interest in estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in randomized and observational studies. However, little research has been conducted to understand heterogeneity in an instrumental variables study. In this work,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-20 Michael Johnson , Jiongyi Cao , Hyunseung Kang

The ability to predict individualized treatment effects (ITEs) based on a given patient's profile is essential for personalized medicine. We propose a hypothesis testing approach to choosing between two potential treatments for a given…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-11 Tianxi Cai , Tony Cai , Zijian Guo

Many computational models were proposed to extract temporal patterns from clinical time series for each patient and among patient group for predictive healthcare. However, the common relations among patients (e.g., share the same doctor)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-03 Fan Zhang , Tong Wu , Yunlong Wang , Yong Cai , Cao Xiao , Emily Zhao , Lucas Glass , Jimeng Sun

Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-12-22 Shu Li , Jan Ernest , Peter Bühlmann

In semicompeting risks problems, nonterminal time-to-event outcomes such as time to hospital readmission are subject to truncation by death. These settings are often modeled with illness-death models for the hazards of the terminal and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-27 Leah Comment , Fabrizia Mealli , Sebastien Haneuse , Corwin Zigler

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-08-26 Chao Zhang , Zhi Geng , Wei Li , Peng Ding

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

One in three women globally experiences intimate partner violence (IPV), yet little is known about how such trauma affects economic decision-making. We provide causal evidence that IPV influences women's time preferences - a key parameter…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-15 Dan Anderberg , Rachel Cassidy , Anaya Dam , Melissa Hidrobo , Jessica Leight , Karlijn Morsink

We consider the challenges associated with causal inference in settings where data from a randomized trial is augmented with control data from an external source to improve efficiency in estimating the average treatment effect (ATE).…

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Understanding true influence in social media requires distinguishing correlation from causation--particularly when analyzing misinformation spread. While existing approaches focus on exposure metrics and network structures, they often fail…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Lin Tian , Marian-Andrei Rizoiu

Causal identification of treatment effects for infectious disease outcomes in interconnected populations is challenging because infection outcomes may be transmissible to others, and treatment given to one individual may affect others'…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Eben Kenah , Forrest W. Crawford

Target trial emulation (TTE) enables causal questions to be studied with observational data when randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are infeasible. Yet treatment-effect methods often address causal estimation, missingness, and temporal…

Inferring causal effects from an observational study is challenging because participants are not randomized to treatment. Observational studies in infectious disease research present the additional challenge that one participant's treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-25 Brian G. Barkley , Michael G. Hudgens , John D. Clemens , Mohammad Ali , Michael E. Emch

Inferring causal individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data is a challenging problem whose difficulty is exacerbated by the presence of treatment assignment bias. In this work, we propose a new way to estimate the ITE using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-16 Abhin Shah , Kartik Ahuja , Karthikeyan Shanmugam , Dennis Wei , Kush Varshney , Amit Dhurandhar