相关论文: Order selection in GARMA models for count time ser…

Generalized autoregressive moving average (GARMA) models are a class of models that was developed for extending the univariate Gaussian ARMA time series model to a flexible observation-driven model for non-Gaussian time series data. This…

This work presents a Bayesian approach for the estimation of Beta Autoregressive Moving Average ($\beta$ARMA) models. We discuss standard choice for the prior distributions and employ a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the…

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

The advantages of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) are exploited to develop parameter estimation and model selection methods for GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) style models. It provides an alternative method…

Time series of counts occurring in various applications are often overdispersed, meaning their variance is much larger than the mean. This paper proposes a novel variable selection approach for processing such data. Our approach consists in…

Transformed Generalized Autoregressive Moving Average (TGARMA) models were recently proposed to deal with non-additivity, non-normality and heteroscedasticity in real time series data. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed for…

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Time series in natural sciences, such as hydrology and climatology, and other environmental applications, often consist of continuous observations constrained to the unit interval (0,1). Traditional Gaussian-based models fail to capture…

In several modern applications, data are generated continuously over time, such as data generated from smartwatches. We assume data are collected and analyzed sequentially, in batches. Since traditional or offline methods can be extremely…

In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on…

One of the important and widely used classes of models for non-Gaussian time series is the generalized autoregressive model average models (GARMA), which specifies an ARMA structure for the conditional mean process of the underlying time…

Bayesian hierarchical models are commonly employed for inference in count datasets, as they account for multiple levels of variation by incorporating prior distributions for parameters at different levels. Examples include Beta-Binomial,…

Compared to the nominal scale, the ordinal scale for a categorical outcome variable has the property of making a monotonicity assumption for the covariate effects meaningful. This assumption is encoded in the commonly used proportional odds…

Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…

We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…

A novel first-order moving-average model for analyzing time series observed at irregularly spaced intervals is introduced. Two definitions are presented, which are equivalent under Gaussianity. The first one relies on normally distributed…

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is an application of Bayesian inference to the problems of model selection, combined estimation and prediction that produces a straightforward model choice criteria and less risky predictions. However, the…

The Reversible Jump algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian estimation and model selection. A generalized multiple-try version of this algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based on…

We consider continuous-time diffusion models driven by fractional Brownian motion. Observations are assumed to possess a non-trivial likelihood given the latent path. Due to the non-Markovianity and high-dimensionality of the latent paths,…

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…