相关论文: Order selection in GARMA models for count time ser…

The Bayesian Mallows model is a flexible tool for analyzing data in the form of complete or partial rankings, and transitive or intransitive pairwise preferences. In many potential applications of preference learning, data arrive…

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) are an important class of cognitive models used to analyze both response time and response choice data recorded from decision-making tasks. Developments in estimation procedures have helped EAMs become…

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

While existing mathematical descriptions can accurately account for phenomena at microscopic scales (e.g. molecular dynamics), these are often high-dimensional, stochastic and their applicability over macroscopic time scales of physical…

We propose a flexible model for count time series which has potential uses for both underdispersed and overdispersed data. The model is based on the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (COM-Poisson) distribution with parameters varying along time to…

Learning dynamical models from data is not only fundamental but also holds great promise for advancing principle discovery, time-series prediction, and controller design. Among various approaches, Gaussian Process State-Space Models…

This paper studies the model selection problem in a large class of causal time series models, which includes both the ARMA or AR($\infty$) processes, as well as the GARCH or ARCH($\infty$), APARCH, ARMA-GARCH and many others processes. We…

Noninformative priors constructed for estimation purposes are usually not appropriate for model selection and testing. The methodology of integral priors was developed to get prior distributions for Bayesian model selection when comparing…

We study the problem of learning the Markov order in categorical sequences that represent paths in a network, i.e. sequences of variable lengths where transitions between states are constrained to a known graph. Such data pose challenges…

We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic relationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algorithm for learning model parameters. To…

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

In this paper, we first propose a Bayesian neighborhood selection method to estimate Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs). We show the graph selection consistency of this method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model…

We develop sampling methods, which consist of Gaussian invariant versions of random walk Metropolis (RWM), Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA) and second order Hessian or Manifold MALA. Unlike standard RWM and MALA we show that…

We propose autoregressive Bayesian semi-parametric models for waiting times between recurrent events. The aim is two-fold: inference on the effect of possibly time-varying covariates on the gap times and clustering of individuals based on…

In statistical modeling of computer experiments sometimes prior information is available about the underlying function. For example, the physical system simulated by the computer code may be known to be monotone with respect to some or all…

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

The paper describes the use of Bayesian regression for building time series models and stacking different predictive models for time series. Using Bayesian regression for time series modeling with nonlinear trend was analyzed. This approach…

Researchers increasingly wish to estimate time-varying parameter (TVP) regressions which involve a large number of explanatory variables. Including prior information to mitigate over-parameterization concerns has led to many using Bayesian…

The problem of estimating ARMA models is computationally interesting due to the nonconcavity of the log-likelihood function. Recent results were based on the convex minimization. Joint model selection using penalization by a convex norm,…

The Linear Ballistic Accumulator (Brown & Heathcote, 2008) model is used as a measurement tool to answer questions about applied psychology. The analyses based on this model depend upon the model selected and its estimated parameters.…