相关论文: Bayesian CART models for aggregate claim modeling

Accuracy and interpretability of a (non-life) insurance pricing model are essential qualities to ensure fair and transparent premiums for policy-holders, that reflect their risk. In recent years, the classification and regression trees…

Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) are a powerful ensemble learning technique for modeling nonlinear regression functions. Although initially BART was proposed for predicting only continuous and binary response variables, over the…

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a flexible prediction model/machine learning approach that has gained widespread popularity in recent years. As BART becomes more mainstream, there is an increased need for a paper that walks…

Frequentist and Bayesian methods differ in many aspects, but share some basic optimal properties. In real-life classification and regression problems, situations exist in which a model based on one of the methods is preferable based on some…

We propose a new class of claim severity distributions with six parameters, that has the standard two-parameter distributions, the log-normal, the log-Gamma, the Weibull, the Gamma and the Pareto, as special cases. This distribution is much…

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) are popular Bayesian ensemble models used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees,…

In this paper, we consider bivariate composite models for modeling jointly different types of claims and their associated costs in a flexible manner. For expository purposes, the Gumbel copula is paired with the composite Weibull-Inverse…

In many longitudinal studies, the covariate and response are often intermittently observed at irregular, mismatched and subject-specific times. How to deal with such data when covariate and response are observed asynchronously is an often…

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

This paper proposes a flexible and analytically tractable class of frequency and severity models for predicting insurance claims. The proposed model is able to capture nonlinear relationships in explanatory variables by characterizing the…

Tree-based regression and classification has become a standard tool in modern data science. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has in particular gained wide popularity due its flexibility in dealing with interactions and non-linear…

Bayesian additive regression trees have seen increased interest in recent years due to their ability to combine machine learning techniques with principled uncertainty quantification. The Bayesian backfitting algorithm used to fit BART…

General circulation models (GCMs) are essential tools for climate studies. Such climate models may have varying accuracy across the input domain, but no model is uniformly best. One can improve climate model prediction performance by…

Several collective risk models have recently been proposed by relaxing the widely used but controversial assumption of independence between claim frequency and severity. Approaches include the bivariate copula model, random effect model,…

In recent years, theoretical results and simulation evidence have shown Bayesian additive regression trees to be a highly-effective method for nonparametric regression. Motivated by cost-effectiveness analyses in health economics, where…

We present a Bayesian nonparametric model for conditional distribution estimation using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). The generative model we use is based on rejection sampling from a base model. Typical of BART models, our…

The preponderance of large-scale healthcare databases provide abundant opportunities for comparative effectiveness research. Evidence necessary to making informed treatment decisions often relies on comparing effectiveness of multiple…

The prediction of future insurance claims based on observed risk factors, or covariates, help the actuary set insurance premiums. Typically, actuaries use parametric regression models to predict claims based on the covariate information.…

There is a dearth of robust methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. This paper uses two unique sets of simulations to propose and evaluate the use of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees…

The Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) model is an ensemble method extensively and successfully used in regression tasks due to its consistently strong predictive performance and its ability to quantify uncertainty. BART combines…