相关论文: Bayesian CART models for aggregate claim modeling

The article develops marginal models for multivariate longitudinal responses. Overall, the model consists of five regression submodels, one for the mean and four for the covariance matrix, with the latter resulting by considering various…

Continuous time Bayesian networks are investigated with a special focus on their ability to express causality. A framework is presented for doing inference in these networks. The central contributions are a representation of the intensity…

Analysing dependent risks is an important task for insurance companies. A dependency is reflected in the fact that information about one random variable provides information about the likely distribution of values of another random…

Mixture model-based frameworks are very popular for statistical inference in clustering. While convenient for producing probabilistic estimates of cluster assignments and uncertainty, they are prone to misspecification, which can lead to…

This paper focuses on Bayesian shrinkage for covariance matrix estimation. We examine posterior properties and frequentist risks of Bayesian estimators based on new hierarchical inverse-Wishart priors. More precisely, we give the existence…

Gaussian graphical models are a popular tool to learn the dependence structure in the form of a graph among variables of interest. Bayesian methods have gained in popularity in the last two decades due to their ability to simultaneously…

We develop an iterative framework for Bayesian inference problems where the posterior distribution may involve computationally intensive models, intractable gradients, significant posterior concentration, and pronounced non-Gaussianity. Our…

We present a Bayesian approach for modeling multivariate, dependent functional data. To account for the three dominant structural features in the data--functional, time dependent, and multivariate components--we extend hierarchical dynamic…

We consider the problem of estimating multiple related but distinct graphical models on the basis of a high-dimensional data set with observations that belong to distinct classes. A motivating example occurs in the analysis of gene…

We introduce a novel bivariate copula model able to capture both the central and tail dependence of the joint probability distribution. Model that can capture the dependence structure within the joint tail have important implications in…

In this paper we follow our previous research in the area of Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT). We present three different methods for CAT. One of them, the item response theory, is a well established method, while the other two, Bayesian…

Some new survival distributions are introduced based on a generalised exponential function. This class of distributions includes heavy-tailed generalisations of exponential, Weibull and gamma distributions. Properties of the distributions…

To build a flexible and interpretable model for document analysis, we develop deep autoencoding topic model (DATM) that uses a hierarchy of gamma distributions to construct its multi-stochastic-layer generative network. In order to provide…

The extreme value theory is very popular in applied sciences including Finance, economics, hydrology and many other disciplines. In univariate extreme value theory, we model the data by a suitable distribution from the general max-domain of…

Bayesian probabilistic numerical methods are a set of tools providing posterior distributions on the output of numerical methods. The use of these methods is usually motivated by the fact that they can represent our uncertainty due to…

For two vast families of mixture distributions and a given prior, we provide unified representations of posterior and predictive distributions. Model applications presented include bivariate mixtures of Gamma distributions labelled as…

In many scenarios, the observational data needed for causal inferences are spread over two data files. In particular, we consider scenarios where one file includes covariates and the treatment measured on one set of individuals, and a…

Discrete data are collected in many application areas and are often characterised by highly skewed and power-lawlike distributions. An example of this, which is considered in this paper, is the number of visits to a specialist, often taken…

A main difficulty in actuarial claim size modeling is that there is no simple off-the-shelf distribution that simultaneously provides a good distributional model for the main body and the tail of the data. In particular, covariates may have…

Evidence accumulation models (EAMs) are an important class of cognitive models used to analyze both response time and response choice data recorded from decision-making tasks. Developments in estimation procedures have helped EAMs become…