相关论文: On marginals and profiled posteriors for cosmologi…

Bayes factor, defined as the ratio of the marginal likelihood functions of two competing models, is the natural Bayesian procedure for model selection. Marginal likelihoods are usually computationally demanding and complex. This scenario is…

We consider the problem of choosing between parametric models for a discrete observable, taking a Bayesian approach in which the within-model prior distributions are allowed to be improper. In order to avoid the ambiguity in the marginal…

We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph $G$ and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a…

We consider the shape of the posterior distribution to be used when fitting cosmological models to power spectra measured from galaxy surveys. At very large scales, Gaussian posterior distributions in the power do not approximate the…

We describe briefly in this note a procedure for consistently estimating the marginal likelihood of a statistical model through a sample from the posterior distribution of the model parameters.

Composite likelihoods are increasingly used in applications where the full likelihood is analytically unknown or computationally prohibitive. Although the maximum composite likelihood estimator has frequentist properties akin to those of…

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…

Profile likelihood is the key tool for dealing with nuisance parameters in likelihood theory. It is often asserted, however, that profile likelihood is not a 'true' likelihood. One implication is that likelihood theory lacks the generality…

We explore the use of higher-order tail area approximations for Bayesian simulation. These approximations give rise to an alternative simulation scheme to MCMC for Bayesian computation of marginal posterior distributions for a scalar…

The well-known Bayes theorem assumes that a posterior distribution is a probability distribution. However, the posterior distribution may no longer be a probability distribution if an improper prior distribution (non-probability measure)…

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of…

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

We consider finite state space stationary hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the situation where the number of hidden states is unknown. We provide a frequentist asymptotic evaluation of Bayesian analysis methods. Our main result gives…

We propose a general method for distributed Bayesian model choice, using the marginal likelihood, where a data set is split in non-overlapping subsets. These subsets are only accessed locally by individual workers and no data is shared…

How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…

Type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia), standardisable candles that allow tracing the expansion history of the Universe, are instrumental in constraining cosmological parameters, particularly dark energy. State-of-the-art likelihood-based analyses…