相关论文: On marginals and profiled posteriors for cosmologi…

Given the growth in the variety and precision of astronomical datasets of interest for cosmology, the best cosmological constraints are invariably obtained by combining data from different experiments. At the likelihood level, one…

Bayesian posterior distributions are widely used for inference, but their dependence on a statistical model creates some challenges. In particular, there may be lots of nuisance parameters that require prior distributions and posterior…

This paper presents a study of the large-sample behavior of the posterior distribution of a structural parameter which is partially identified by moment inequalities. The posterior density is derived based on the limited information…

In this paper we derive an explicit formula for calculating the marginal likelihood of a given factorization of a categorical dataset. Since the marginal likelihood is proportional to the posterior probability of the factorization, these…

Selecting a subset of variables for linear models remains an active area of research. This paper reviews many of the recent contributions to the Bayesian model selection and shrinkage prior literature. A posterior variable selection summary…

In many signal processing problems, it may be fruitful to represent the signal under study in a frame. If a probabilistic approach is adopted, it becomes then necessary to estimate the hyper-parameters characterizing the probability…

Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…

We investigate cosmological parameter inference and model selection from a Bayesian perspective. Type Ia supernova data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR) are used to test the $\Lambda$CDM, $w$CDM, and CPL cosmological models.…

In Bayesian theory, calculating a posterior probability distribution is highly important but usually difficult. Therefore, some methods have been put forward to deal with such problem, among which, the most popular one is the asymptotic…

Which neural networks are similar is a fundamental question for both machine learning and neuroscience. Here, it is proposed to base comparisons on the predictive distributions of linear readouts from intermediate representations. In…

Univariate and multivariate normal probability distributions are widely used when modeling decisions under uncertainty. Computing the performance of such models requires integrating these distributions over specific domains, which can vary…

We present profile-likelihood constraints on velocity-independent dark matter-proton scattering, including cases in which only a fraction of dark matter has such non-gravitational interactions. Frequentist profile-likelihood techniques…

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from…

Likelihood based-learning of graphical models faces challenges of computational-complexity and robustness to model mis-specification. This paper studies methods that fit parameters directly to maximize a measure of the accuracy of predicted…

Consider semiparametric models that display local asymptotic exponentiality (Ibragimov and Has'minskii (1981)), an asymptotic property of the likelihood associated with discontinuities of densities. Our interest goes to estimation of the…

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

Fitted probabilities from widely used Bayesian multinomial probit models can depend strongly on the choice of a base category, which is used to uniquely identify the parameters of the model. This paper proposes a novel identification…

The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

In this paper, we present the first study that compares different models of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to predict the posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters directly from the Cosmic Microwave Background temperature and…