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Whether or not stocks are predictable has been a topic of concern for decades.The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) says that it is difficult for investors to make extra profits by predicting stock prices, but this may not be true,…

数值分析 · 数学 2023-07-07 Yueshan Chen , Xingyu Xu , Tian Lan , Sihai Zhang

The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-09-09 Gabriel Rodrigues Palma , Mariusz Skoczeń , Phil Maguire

Understanding the variations in trading price (volatility), and its response to exogenous information, is a well-researched topic in finance. In this study, we focus on finding stable and accurate volatility predictors for a relatively new…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2022-12-07 M. Eren Akbiyik , Mert Erkul , Killian Kaempf , Vaiva Vasiliauskaite , Nino Antulov-Fantulin

The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2023-11-21 Leonard Mushunje , Maxwell Mashasha , Edina Chandiwana

This study identifies the key factors influencing the price movements of major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether, using Bayesian networks (BNs). This study addresses two key challenges:…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-08-22 Rasoul Amirzadeh , Asef Nazari , Dhananjay Thiruvady , Mong Shan Ee

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and influenced by both price trends and market sentiment, making effective portfolio management challenging. This paper proposes a dynamic cryptocurrency portfolio strategy that integrates…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2026-03-05 Qizhao Chen

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-09-07 Sidra Mehtab , Jaydip Sen

We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2021-01-01 Misha Perepelitsa , Ilya Timofeyev

We study the problem of predicting whether the price of the 21 most popular cryptocurrencies (according to coinmarketcap.com) will go up or down on day d, using data up to day d-1. Our C2P2 algorithm is the first algorithm to consider the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-06-04 Chongyang Bai , Tommy White , Linda Xiao , V. S. Subrahmanian , Ziheng Zhou

This paper introduced key aspects of applying Machine Learning (ML) models, improved trading strategies, and the Quasi-Reversibility Method (QRM) to optimize stock option forecasting and trading results. It presented the findings of the…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2022-11-30 Zheng Cao , Raymond Guo , Wenyu Du , Jiayi Gao , Kirill V. Golubnichiy

In an era where financial markets are heavily influenced by many static and dynamic factors, it has become increasingly critical to carefully integrate diverse data sources with machine learning for accurate stock price prediction. This…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-03-10 Furkan Karadaş , Bahaeddin Eravcı , Ahmet Murat Özbayoğlu

We endorse the idea, suggested in recent literature, that BitCoin prices are influenced by sentiment and confidence about the underlying technology; as a consequence, an excitement about the BitCoin system may propagate to BitCoin prices…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2019-09-23 Alessandra Cretarola , Gianna Figà-Talamanca

Cryptocurrency, the most controversial and simultaneously the most interesting asset, has attracted many investors and speculators in recent years. The visibly significant market capitalization of cryptos also motivates modern financial…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2021-12-10 Junjie Hu , Wolfgang Karl Härdle , Weiyu Kuo

To the naked eye, stock prices are considered chaotic, dynamic, and unpredictable. Indeed, it is one of the most difficult forecasting tasks that hundreds of millions of retail traders and professional traders around the world try to do…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2025-02-17 Shuozhe Li , Zachery B Schulwol , Risto Miikkulainen

This paper leverages machine learning algorithms to forecast and analyze financial time series. The process begins with a denoising autoencoder to filter out random noise fluctuations from the main contract price data. Then, one-dimensional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-22 Zhuohuan Hu , Richard Yu , Zizhou Zhang , Haoran Zheng , Qianying Liu , Yining Zhou

Financial markets are nonlinear with complexity, where different types of assets are traded between buyers and sellers, each having a view to maximize their Return on Investment (ROI). Forecasting market trends is a challenging task since…

交易与市场微观结构 · 定量金融 2024-11-22 Sahand Hassanizorgabad

This paper initiates a study into the century-old issue of market predictability from the perspective of computational complexity. We develop a simple agent-based model for a stock market where the agents are traders equipped with simple…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2007-05-23 James Aspnes , David F. Fischer , Michael J. Fischer , Ming-Yang Kao , Alok Kumar

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2021-10-12 Sidra Mehtab , Jaydip Sen

We show Bitcoin implied volatility on a 5 minute time horizon is modestly predictable from price, volatility momentum and alternative data including sentiment and engagement. Lagged Bitcoin index price and volatility movements contribute to…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-10-30 Faizaan Pervaiz , Christopher Goh , Ashley Pennington , Samuel Holt , James West , Shaun Ng

Prediction of stock groups' values has always been attractive and challenging for shareholders. This paper concentrates on the future prediction of stock market groups. Four groups named diversified financials, petroleum, non-metallic…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2020-08-26 Mojtaba Nabipour , Pooyan Nayyeri , Hamed Jabani , Amir Mosavi