相关论文: Eliciting prior information from clinical trials v…

Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the gold standard for evidence generation in relation to the efficacy of a new treatment in medical research. Relevant information from previous studies may be desirable to incorporate in the…

The prior distribution for the unknown model parameters plays a crucial role in the process of statistical inference based on Bayesian methods. However, specifying suitable priors is often difficult even when detailed prior knowledge is…

This article introduces a new method for eliciting prior distributions from experts. The method models an expert decision-making process to infer a prior probability distribution for a rare event $A$. More specifically, assuming there…

A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior…

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Background: The uptake of formalized prior elicitation from experts in Bayesian clinical trials has been limited due to challenges such as complex statistical modeling, lack of practical tools, and the cognitive burden placed on experts…

Across the empirical sciences, few statistical procedures rival the popularity of the frequentist t-test. In contrast, the Bayesian versions of the t-test have languished in obscurity. In recent years, however, the theoretical and practical…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

Incorporating historical information into the design and analysis of a new clinical trial has been the subject of much recent discussion. For example, in the context of clinical trials of antibiotics for drug resistant infections, where…

The elicitation of power priors, based on the availability of historical data, is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power {\delta}, which quantifies the degree of discounting of the…

The use of mathematical models to make predictions about tumor growth and response to treatment has become increasingly more prevalent in the clinical setting. The level of complexity within these models ranges broadly, and the calibration…

Eliciting informative prior distributions for Bayesian inference can often be complex and challenging. While popular methods rely on asking experts probability based questions to quantify uncertainty, these methods are not without their…

Historical data about disease outcomes can be integrated into the analysis of clinical trials in many ways. We build on existing literature that uses prognostic scores from a predictive model to increase the efficiency of treatment effect…

The Bayes factor, the data-based updating factor of the prior to posterior odds of two hypotheses, is a natural measure of statistical evidence for one hypothesis over the other. We show how Bayes factors can also be used for parameter…

External data borrowing in clinical trial designs has increased in recent years. This is accomplished in the Bayesian framework by specifying informative prior distributions. To mitigate the impact of potential inconsistency (bias) between…

When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some…

Basket trials have emerged as a new class of efficient approaches in oncology to evaluate a new treatment in several patient subgroups simultaneously. In this paper, we extend the key ideas to disease areas outside of oncology, developing a…

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…

We develop a Bayesian approach called Bayesian projected calibration to address the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using observational data from a complex physical system. The calibration parameter and the physical…

Bayesian estimation is increasingly popular for performing model based inference to support policymaking. These data are often collected from surveys under informative sampling designs where subject inclusion probabilities are designed to…