相关论文: Defining error accumulation in ML atmospheric simu…

Machine learning (ML) has become a commodity in our every-day lives. We routinely ask ML empowered smartphones to suggest lovely food places or to guide us through a strange place. ML methods have also become standard tools in many fields…

Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…

Effective riverine flood forecasting at scale is hindered by a multitude of factors, most notably the need to rely on human calibration in current methodology, the limited amount of data for a specific location, and the computational…

Data-driven weather forecast based on machine learning (ML) has experienced rapid development and demonstrated superior performance in the global medium-range forecast compared to traditional physics-based dynamical models. However, most of…

The growing adoption of machine learning (ML) in modelling atmospheric and oceanic processes offers a promising alternative to traditional numerical methods. It is essential to benchmark the performance of both ML and physics-informed ML…

Climate change is accelerating the frequency and severity of unprecedented events, deviating from established patterns. Predicting these out-of-distribution (OOD) events is critical for assessing risks and guiding climate adaptation. While…

Utilizing the information in observations of a complex system to make accurate predictions through a quantitative model when observations are completed at time $T$, requires an accurate estimate of the full state of the model at time $T$.…

This study introduces a framework for quality control of measured weather data, including anomaly detection, and infilling missing values. Weather data is a fundamental input to building performance simulations, in which anomalous values…

Many organizations seek to ensure that machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) systems work as intended in production but currently do not have a cohesive methodology in place to do so. To fill this gap, we propose MLTE…

Model explainability has become an important problem in machine learning (ML) due to the increased effect that algorithmic predictions have on humans. Explanations can help users understand not only why ML models make certain predictions,…

Traditionally model averaging has been viewed as an alternative to model selection with the ultimate goal to incorporate the uncertainty associated with the model selection process in standard errors and confidence intervals by using a…

Numerical simulations of physical systems exhibit discrepancies arising from unmodeled physics and idealizations, as well as numerical approximation errors stemming from discretization and solver tolerances. This article reviews techniques…

The growing demands of the worldwide IT infrastructure stress the need for reduced power consumption, which is addressed in so-called transprecision computing by improving energy efficiency at the expense of precision. For example, reducing…

The trade-off between accuracy and interpretability has long been a challenge in machine learning (ML). This tension is particularly significant for emerging interpretable-by-design methods, which aim to redesign ML algorithms for…

Machine learning has been increasingly applied in climate modeling on system emulation acceleration, data-driven parameter inference, forecasting, and knowledge discovery, addressing challenges such as physical consistency, multi-scale…

Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…

We argue that interpretations of machine learning (ML) models or the model-building process can be seen as a form of sensitivity analysis (SA), a general methodology used to explain complex systems in many fields such as environmental…

This paper presents an R package to handle and represent measurements with errors in a very simple way. We briefly introduce the main concepts of metrology and propagation of uncertainty, and discuss related R packages. Building upon this,…

In the context of computer models, calibration is the process of estimating unknown simulator parameters from observational data. Calibration is variously referred to as model fitting, parameter estimation/inference, an inverse problem, and…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…