相关论文: Joint Prediction Regions for time-series models

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is…

Precision-recall (PR) curves and the areas under them are widely used to summarize machine learning results, especially for data sets exhibiting class skew. They are often used analogously to ROC curves and the area under ROC curves. It is…

Fitting linear regression models can be computationally very expensive in large-scale data analysis tasks if the sample size and the number of variables are very large. Random projections are extensively used as a dimension reduction tool…

Uncertainty quantification is essential for scientific analysis, as it allows for the evaluation and interpretation of variability and reliability in complex systems and datasets. In their original form, multivariate statistical regression…

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

Statistical prediction plays an important role in many decision processes such as university budgeting (depending on the number of students who will enroll), capital budgeting (depending on the remaining lifetime of a fleet of systems), the…

We propose a new inferential framework for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses in statistical models specified by a system of high dimensional estimating equations. We construct an influence function by projecting the…

Though with progress, model learning and performing posterior inference still remains a common challenge for using deep generative models, especially for handling discrete hidden variables. This paper is mainly concerned with algorithms for…

The Model-free Prediction Principle of Politis (2015) has been successfully applied to general regression problems, as well as problems involving stationary time series. However, with long time series, e.g. annual temperature measurements…

Current artificial neural networks mainly conduct the learning process in the spatial domain but neglect the frequency domain learning. However, the learning course performed in the frequency domain can be more efficient than that in the…

In Das and Politis(2020), a model-free bootstrap(MFB) paradigm was proposed for generating prediction intervals of univariate, (locally) stationary time series. Theoretical guarantees for this algorithm was resolved in Wang and…

Delivering precise point and distributional forecasts across a spectrum of prediction horizons represents a significant and enduring challenge in the application of time-series forecasting within various industries. Prior research on…

Neural weather models have shown immense potential as inexpensive and accurate alternatives to physics-based models. However, most models trained to perform weather forecasting do not quantify the uncertainty associated with their…

In the last decades, it has been discussed the use of epidemiological prevalence ratio (PR) rather than odds ratio as a measure of association to be estimated in cross-sectional studies. The main difficulties in use of statistical models…

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

This work contributes to the development of neural forecasting models with novel randomization-based learning methods. These methods improve the fitting abilities of the neural model, in comparison to the standard method, by generating…

We introduce the first probabilistic framework tailored for sequential random projection, an approach rooted in the challenges of sequential decision-making under uncertainty. The analysis is complicated by the sequential dependence and…

Forecasting time series data is a critical area of research with applications spanning from stock prices to early epidemic prediction. While numerous statistical and machine learning methods have been proposed, real-life prediction problems…

Linear time-invariant systems are very popular models in system theory and applications. A fundamental problem in system identification that remains rather unaddressed in extant literature is to leverage commonalities amongst related linear…

Accurate predictions of electricity demands are necessary for managing operations in a small aggregation load setting like a Microgrid. Due to low aggregation, the electricity demands can be highly stochastic and point estimates would lead…