相关论文: Joint Prediction Regions for time-series models

An important issue when using Machine Learning algorithms in recent research is the lack of interpretability. Although these algorithms provide accurate point predictions for various learning problems, uncertainty estimates connected with…

The projection pursuit regression (PPR) has played an important role in the development of statistics and machine learning. However, when compared to other established methods like random forests (RF) and support vector machines (SVM), PPR…

In the era of big data, practical applications in various domains continually generate large-scale time-series data. Among them, some data show significant or potential periodicity characteristics, such as meteorological and financial data.…

Prediction-powered inference is a framework for performing valid statistical inference when an experimental dataset is supplemented with predictions from a machine-learning system. The framework yields simple algorithms for computing…

Series and polynomial regression are able to approximate the same function classes as neural networks. However, these methods are rarely used in practice, although they offer more interpretability than neural networks. In this paper, we…

Precision matrices play important roles in many practical applications. Motivated by temporally dependent multivariate data in modern social and scientific studies, we consider the statistical inference of precision matrices for…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions for machine learning models that are valid with high probability. A key component of conformal prediction algorithms is a \emph{non-conformity score function} that…

We study online interval scheduling in the irrevocable setting, where each interval must be immediately accepted or rejected upon arrival. The objective is to maximize the total length of accepted intervals while ensuring that no two…

We propose a bootstrap-based calibrated projection procedure to build confidence intervals for single components and for smooth functions of a partially identified parameter vector in moment (in)equality models. The method controls…

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

In machine learning, the selection of a promising model from a potentially large number of competing models and the assessment of its generalization performance are critical tasks that need careful consideration. Typically, model selection…

Conformal prediction methods construct prediction regions for iid data that are valid in finite samples. We provide two parametric conformal prediction regions that are applicable for a wide class of continuous statistical models. This…

In this work, we introduce a novel approach for determining a joint sparse spectrum from several non-uniformly sampled data sets, where each data set is assumed to have its own, possibly disjoint, and only partially known, sampling times.…

Visual Place Recognition (VPR) enables robots and autonomous vehicles to identify previously visited locations by matching current observations against a database of known places. However, VPR systems face significant challenges when…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Conformal prediction methods enjoy strong theoretical and empirical predictive inference performance, provided the data is exchangeable, and predictors are trained in a memoryless fashion. However, these assumptions and constraints are…

In time series forecasting, decomposition-based algorithms break aggregate data into meaningful components and are therefore appreciated for their particular advantages in interpretability. Recent algorithms often combine machine learning…

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open-source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the…

Constructing valid prediction intervals rather than point estimates is a well-established approach for uncertainty quantification in the regression setting. Models equipped with this capacity output an interval of values in which the ground…