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While randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are critical for establishing the efficacy of new therapies, there are limitations regarding what comparisons can be made directly from trial data. RCTs are limited to a small number of comparator…

Complementary features of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies (OSs) can be used jointly to estimate the average treatment effect of a target population. We propose a calibration weighting estimator that enforces…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-16 Dasom Lee , Shu Yang , Lin Dong , Xiaofei Wang , Donglin Zeng , Jianwen Cai

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

This paper introduces a generalized ps-BART model for the estimation of Average Treatment Effect (ATE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) in continuous treatments, addressing limitations of the Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-09-11 Hugo Gobato Souto , Francisco Louzada Neto

Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation, at the heart of counterfactual reasoning, is a crucial challenge for causal modeling both theoretically and applicatively, in domains such as healthcare, sociology, or advertising.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-27 Armand Lacombe , Michèle Sebag

Average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) are foundational causal estimands, but they target changes in expected outcomes and can miss treatment-induced changes in the shape of outcome distributions. A…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Amir Saki , Usef Faghihi

This paper extends difference-in-differences to settings with continuous treatments. Specifically, the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) at any level of treatment intensity is identified under a conditional parallel trends…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-05 Lucas Z. Zhang

The heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) lies at the heart of precision medicine. Randomized controlled trials are gold-standard for treatment effect estimation but are typically underpowered for heterogeneous effects. In contrast, large…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-14 Shu Yang , Siyi Liu , Donglin Zeng , Xiaofei Wang

Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Stefanie von Felten , Chiara Vanetta , Christoph M. Rüegger , Sven Wellmann , Leonhard Held

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

Causal inference methods based on electronic health record (EHR) databases must simultaneously handle confounding and missing data. Vast scholarship exists aimed at addressing these two issues separately, but surprisingly few papers attempt…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-28 Luke Benz , Alexander Levis , Sebastien Haneuse

Estimating treatment effects conditional on observed covariates can improve the ability to tailor treatments to particular individuals. Doing so effectively requires dealing with potential confounding, and also enough data to adequately…

We argue that randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are special even among settings where average treatment effects are identified by a nonparametric unconfoundedness assumption. This claim follows from two results of Robins and Ritov (1997):…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-28 P. M. Aronow , James M. Robins , Theo Saarinen , Fredrik Sävje , Jasjeet Sekhon

A common concern in non-inferiority (NI) trials is that non adherence due, for example, to poor study conduct can make treatment arms artificially similar. Because intention to treat analyses can be anti-conservative in this situation, per…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-04 Katy E Morgan , Ian R White , Clémence Leyrat , Simon Stanworth , Brennan C Kahan

Understanding the impact of treatment effect over time is a fundamental aspect of many scientific and medical studies. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach under a continuous-time reinforcement learning framework for testing a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Jiuchen Zhang , Annie Qu

There is a growing literature on design-based methods to estimate average treatment effects for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) using the underpinnings of experiments. In this article, we build on these methods to consider design-based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Peter Z Schochet

When studying treatment effects in multilevel studies, investigators commonly use (semi-)parametric estimators, which make strong parametric assumptions about the outcome, the treatment, and/or the correlation structure between study units…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-12 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-03 Lingxiao Zhou , Kosuke Imai , Jason Lyall , Georgia Papadogeorgou

Additive noise models (ANMs) are an important setting studied in causal inference. Most of the existing works on ANMs assume causal sufficiency, i.e., there are no unobserved confounders. This paper focuses on confounded ANMs, where a set…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-16 Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Mahsa Ghasemi , Murat Kocaoglu

In this paper, we develop a multiply robust inference procedure of the average treatment effect (ATE) for data with high-dimensional covariates. We consider the case where it is difficult to correctly specify a single parametric model for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-03 Xintao Xia , Yumou Qiu