相关论文: Comment on "Safe Testing" by Gr\"unwald, de Heide,…

We briefly review the status of factorization in $b$-decays. We discuss several experimental tests of its nature and stress their importance. We show that decays into mesons which have small decay constants or spin greater than one…

We use the exact finite sample likelihood and statistical decision theory to answer questions of ``why?'' and ``what should you have done?'' using data from randomized experiments and a utility function that prioritizes safety over…

We introduce a kernel-based goodness-of-fit test for censored data, where observations may be missing in random time intervals: a common occurrence in clinical trials and industrial life-testing. The test statistic is straightforward to…

This extended preface [to the Book `Bayesian Nonparametrics', Cambridge University Press, 2010, by NL Hjort, CC Holmes, P Mueller, SG Walker] is meant to explain why you are right to be curious about Bayesian nonparametrics -- why you may…

We discuss the use of the Bayesian evidence ratio, or Bayes factor, for model selection in astronomy. We treat the evidence ratio as a statistic and investigate its distribution over an ensemble of experiments, considering both simple…

In this short communication, we describe the recent debate on whether the hazard function should be used for causal inference in time-to-event studies and consider three different potential outcomes frameworks (by Rubin, Robins, and Pearl,…

Rejoinder of "Frequentist coverage of adaptive nonparametric Bayesian credible sets" by Szab\'o, van der Vaart and van Zanten [arXiv:1310.4489v5].

In a review on the contribution of J.B.S. Haldane to the development of the Bayes factor hypothesis test (arXiv:1511.08180), Etz and Wagenmakers focus on Haldane's proposition of a mixture prior in a genetic example (Haldane 1932, A note on…

When utilising PAC-Bayes theory for risk certification, it is usually necessary to estimate and bound the Gibbs risk of the PAC-Bayes posterior. Many works in the literature employ a method for this which requires a large number of passes…

The is no other model or hypothesis verification tool in Bayesian statistics that is as widely used as the Bayes factor. We focus on generative models that are likelihood-free and, therefore, render the computation of Bayes factors…

This paper proposes a framework based on a causal model of safety upon which effective safety assurance cases for ML-based applications can be built. In doing so, we build upon established principles of safety engineering as well as…

Generalized Bayes posterior distributions are formed by putting a fractional power on the likelihood before combining with the prior via Bayes's formula. This fractional power, which is often viewed as a remedy for potential model…

This work develops a measurement-driven and model-based formal verification approach, applicable to systems with partly unknown dynamics. We provide a principled method, grounded on reachability analysis and on Bayesian inference, to…

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

The specification, design, and assurance of safety encompasses various concepts and best practices, subject of reuse in form of patterns. This work summarizes applied research on such concepts and practices with a focus on the last two…

Machine learning algorithms increasingly influence our decisions and interact with us in all parts of our daily lives. Therefore, just as we consider the safety of power plants, highways, and a variety of other engineered socio-technical…

In most relevant cases in the Bayesian analysis of ODE inverse problems, a numerical solver needs to be used. Therefore, we cannot work with the exact theoretical posterior distribution but only with an approximate posterior deriving from…

Many modern asymmetric encryption methods rely on prime numbers, as they have distinctive properties. For instance, the security of RSA cryptosystem relies on the computational difficulty of factoring a large composite number in its prime…

Suppose you are told that taking a statin will reduce your risk of a heart attack or stroke by 3% in the next ten years, or that women have better emotional intelligence than men. You may wonder how accurate the 3% is, or how confident we…