相关论文: Complex economics of simple periodic systems

We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…

This paper investigates asset allocation problems when returns are predictable. We introduce a market-timing Bayesian hierarchical (BH) approach that adopts heterogeneous time-varying coefficients driven by lagged fundamental…

This paper studies the income fluctuation problem with capital income risk (i.e., dispersion in the rate of return to wealth). Wealth returns and labor earnings are allowed to be serially correlated and mutually dependent. Rewards can be…

Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in log normalized returns, the…

This paper investigates the so-called leakage effect of trading strategies generated functionally from rank-dependent portfolio generating functions. This effect measures the loss in wealth of trading strategies due to renewing the…

We study a stochastic multiplicative system composed of finite asynchronous elements to describe the wealth evolution in financial markets. We find that the wealth fluctuations or returns of this system can be described by a walk with…

With the daily and minutely data of the German DAX and Chinese indices, we investigate how the return-volatility correlation originates in financial dynamics. Based on a retarded volatility model, we may eliminate or generate the…

A new methodology has been introduced to clean the correlation matrix of single stocks returns based on a constrained principal component analysis using financial data. Portfolios were introduced, namely "Fundamental Maximum Variance…

We analyze the household savings problem in a general setting where returns on assets, non-financial income and impatience are all state dependent and fluctuate over time. All three processes can be serially correlated and mutually…

A macroeconomic model based on the economic variables (i) assets, (ii) leverage (defined as debt over asset) and (iii) trust (defined as the maximum sustainable leverage) is proposed to investigate the role of credit in the dynamics of…

We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval {\Delta} and describe the dependences of…

Barrier derivatives depend on extrema and first-passage events and are therefore highly sensitive to volatility dynamics -- especially to the instantaneous return-volatility correlation $\rho$, often called ``leverage''. This sensitivity…

Low total fertility rates throughout the world have lead to concerns about economic growth, military security, international political power, environment impacts, and quality of life. Overall total fertility rates of today's societies are…

We describe a new complex system model of an evolving production economy. This model is the simplest we can envisage which incorporates the new observation that the rate of an economic production process depends only on the minimum of its…

Our computational economic analysis investigates the relationship between inequality, mobility and the financial accumulation process. Extending the baseline model by Levy et al., we characterise the economic process through stylised return…

A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{volatility drag}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In…

We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim…

This paper develops a mathematical framework for the analysis of continuous-time trading strategies which, in contrast to the classical setting of continuous-time mathematical finance, does not rely on stochastic integrals or other…

A portfolio of different stocks and a risk-less security whose composition is dynamically maintained stable by trading shares at any time step leads to a growth of the capital with a nonrandom rate. This is the key for the theory of…

At what level should government or companies support research? This complex multi-faceted question encompasses such qualitative bonus as satisfying natural human curiosity, the quest for knowledge and the impact on education and culture,…