相关论文: Estimating the household secondary attack rate wit…
We use scale-free networks to study properties of the infected mass $M$ of the network during a spreading process as a function of the infection probability $q$ and the structural scaling exponent $\gamma$. We use the standard SIR model and…
Power-law scalings are ubiquitous to physical phenomena undergoing a continuous phase transition. The classic Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemics is one such example where the scaling behavior near a critical point has…
The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is studied in multilayer networks with arbitrary number of links across the layers. By following the mapping to bond percolation we give the analytical expression for the epidemic threshold and…
Much effort has been directed towards using mathematical models to understand and predict contagious disease, in particular Ebola outbreaks. Classical SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) compartmental models capture well the dynamics of…
In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…
Under limited available resources, strategies for mitigating the propagation of an epidemic such as random testing and contact tracing become inefficient. Here, we propose to accurately allocate the resources by computing over time an…
Population attributable risk (PAR) is used in epidemiology to predict the impact of removing a risk factor from the population. Until recently, no standard approach for calculating confidence intervals or the variance for PAR was available…
We consider a single outbreak susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and corresponding estimation procedures for the effective reproductive number $\mathcal{R}(t)$. We discuss the estimation of the underlying SIR parameters with a…
Using a probability of novel encounter derived from a physical model, we augment the SIR compartmental model for disease spread. Scenarios with the same initial trajectories and identical $R_0$ values can diverge greatly depending on the…
The size and shape of the region affected by an outbreak is relevant to understand the dynamics of a disease and help to organize future actions to mitigate similar events. A simple extension of the SIR model is considered, where agents…
We study the dynamics of a spatially structured model of worldwide epidemics and formulate predictions for arrival times of the disease at any city in the network. The model is comprised of a system of ordinary differential equations…
The spread of infectious diseases near the epidemic threshold is investigated. Scaling laws for the size and the duration of outbreaks originating from a single infected individual in a large susceptible population are obtained. The maximal…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in Part I. We show conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Containment of epidemic outbreaks entails great societal and economic costs. Cost-effective containment strategies rely on efficiently identifying infected individuals, making the best possible use of the available testing resources.…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
In this paper, we outline the theory of epidemic percolation networks and their use in the analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic models on undirected contact networks. We then show how the same theory can be used to analyze stochastic SIR…
When fitting a multi-parameter model to a data set, computer algorithms may suggest that a range of parameters provide equally reasonable fits, making the parameter estimation difficult. Here, we prove this fact for an SIR model. We say a…