相关论文: The Influence of Validation Data on Logical and Sc…

Many resources for forensic scholars and practitioners, such as journal articles, guidance documents, and textbooks, address how to make a value of evidence assessment in the form of a likelihood ratio (LR) when deciding between two…

The forensic science community has increasingly sought quantitative methods for conveying the weight of evidence. Experts from many forensic laboratories summarize their findings in terms of a likelihood ratio. Several proponents of this…

In this article we provide a rebuttal against the possible perception that a single number, such as the Likelihood Ratio, can provide an objective, authoritative or definitive weight of evidence. We also illustrate the extent to which…

For several decades, legal and scientific scholars have argued that conclusions from forensic examinations should be supported by statistical data and reported within a probabilistic framework. Multiple models have been proposed to quantify…

Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain…

Forensic examiners and attorneys need to know how to express evidence in favor or against a prosecutor's hypothesis in a way that avoids the prosecutor's fallacy and follows the modern reporting standards for forensic evidence. This article…

Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…

Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…

This article, produced as a result of the Symposium on Statistical Inference, is an introduction to the literature on the function of expertise, judgment, and choice in the practice of statistics and scientific research. In particular,…

In the Bayesian paradigm for presenting forensic evidence to court, it is recommended that the weight of the evidence be summarized as a likelihood ratio (LR) between two opposing hypotheses of how the evidence could have been produced.…

The roles played by decision factors in making complex subject are decisions are characterized by how these factors affect the overall decision. Evidence that partially matches a factor is evaluated, and then effective computational rules…

When presenting forensic evidence, such as a DNA match, experts often use the Likelihood ratio (LR) to explain the impact of evidence . The LR measures the probative value of the evidence with respect to a single hypothesis such as 'DNA…

Forensic scientists are often criticised for the lack of quantitative support for the conclusions of their examinations. While scholars advocate for the use of a Bayes factor to quantify the weight of forensic evidence, it is often…

Complex learning agents are increasingly deployed alongside existing experts, such as human operators or previously trained agents. However, it remains unclear how should learners optimally incorporate certain forms of expert data, which…

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

Evidence in probabilistic reasoning may be 'hard' or 'soft', that is, it may be of yes/no form, or it may involve a strength of belief, in the unit interval [0, 1]. Reasoning with soft, [0, 1]-valued evidence is important in many situations…

This paper presents some ideas and results of using uncertainty management methods in the presence of data in preference to other statistical and machine learning methods. A medical domain is used as a test-bed with data available from a…

The present letter to the editor is one in a series of publications discussing the formulation of hypotheses (propositions) for the evaluation of strength of forensic evidence. In particular, the discussion focusses on the issue of what…

Lennard (2013) [Fingerprint identification: how far have we come? Aus J Forensic Sci. doi:10.1080/00450618.2012.752037] proposes that the numeric output of statistical models should not be presented in court (except "if necessary" / "if…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…