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We present an efficient particle filtering algorithm for multiscale systems, that is adapted for simple atmospheric dynamics models which are inherently chaotic. Particle filters represent the posterior conditional distribution of the state…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2015-06-04 Nishanth Lingala , N. Sri Namachchivaya , Nicolas Perkowski , Hoong C. Yeong

We present a new strategy for filtering high-dimensional multiscale systems characterized by high-order non-Gaussian statistics using observations from leading-order moments. A closed stochastic-statistical modeling framework suitable for…

数学物理 · 物理学 2024-07-09 Di Qi , Jian-Guo Liu

We combine conditional state density construction with an extension of the Scenario Approach for stochastic Model Predictive Control to nonlinear systems to yield a novel particle-based formulation of stochastic nonlinear output-feedback…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-05-01 Martin A. Sehr , Robert R. Bitmead

A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2012-04-11 Lewis Mitchell , Georg A. Gottwald

We present a reformulation of stochastic global optimization as a filtering problem. The motivation behind this reformulation comes from the fact that for many optimization problems we cannot evaluate exactly the objective function to be…

数值分析 · 数学 2009-12-22 Panagiotis Stinis

Lagrangian data assimilation exploits the trajectories of moving tracers as observations to recover the underlying flow field. One major challenge in Lagrangian data assimilation is the intrinsic nonlinearity that impedes using exact…

动力系统 · 数学 2023-06-14 Nan Chen , Shubin Fu

We formulate theoretical modeling approaches and develop practical computational simulation methods for investigating the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of fluid interfaces with passive and active immersed particles. Our approaches…

软凝聚态物质 · 物理学 2024-10-03 Dev Jasuja , Paul J. Atzberger

The typical particle filtering approximation error is exponentially dependent on the dimension of the model. Therefore, to control this error, an enormous number of particles are required, which means a heavy computational burden that is…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2014-07-02 Francesco Bertoli , Adrian N. Bishop

This work is about low dimensional reduction for a slow-fast data assimilation system with non-Gaussian $\alpha-$stable L\'evy noise via stochastic averaging. When the observations are only available for slow components, we show that the…

动力系统 · 数学 2018-01-10 Yanjie Zhang , Zhuan Cheng , Xinyong Zhang , Xiaoli Chen , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaofan Li

The implicit particle filter is a sequential Monte Carlo method for data assimilation that guides the particles to the high-probability regions via a sequence of steps that includes minimizations. We present a new and more general…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2017-02-01 Ethan Atkins , Matthias Morzfeld , Alexandre J. Chorin

The filtering distribution captures the statistics of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. Classical particle filters provably approximate this distribution in quite general settings; however they behave…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-10 Edoardo Calvello , Pierre Monmarché , Andrew M. Stuart , Urbain Vaes

A series of novel filters for probabilistic inference that propose an alternative way of performing Bayesian updates, called particle flow filters, have been attracting recent interest. These filters provide approximate solutions to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-03-24 Flávio Eler De Melo , Simon Maskell , Matteo Fasiolo , Fred Daum

Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice.…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-07-30 Omar Al Ghattas , Jiajun Bao , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

Particle filtering is a powerful approximation method that applies to state estimation in nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamical state-space models. Unfortunately, the approximation error depends exponentially on the system dimension. This…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2014-07-02 Francesco Bertoli , Adrian N. Bishop

In using data assimilation to import information from observations to estimate parameters and state variables of a model, one must assume a distribution for the noise in the measurements and in the model errors. Using the path integral…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2010-12-10 Henry D. I. Abarbanel

Many dynamical systems are difficult or impossible to model using high fidelity physics based models. Consequently, researchers are relying more on data driven models to make predictions and forecasts. Based on limited training data,…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2025-04-09 Max M. Chumley , Firas A. Khasawneh

We address data assimilation for linear and nonlinear dynamical systems via the so-called \emph{model reference adaptive system}. Continuing our theoretical developments in \cite{Tram_Kaltenbacher_2021}, we deliver the first practical…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2026-02-12 Benedikt Kaltenbach , Christian Aarset , Tram Thi Ngoc Nguyen

Continuous data assimilation (CDA) nudges observational data into governing equations to recover the underlying flow and improve predictions. Existing rigorous CDA analyses focus primarily on incompressible flows, yet no physical flow is…

数值分析 · 数学 2026-04-30 Aytekin Çıbık , Rui Fang

We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…

混沌动力学 · 物理学 2009-11-13 Alberto Carrassi , Michael Ghil , Anna Trevisan , Francesco Uboldi

Particle filters are a powerful and flexible tool for performing inference on state-space models. They involve a collection of samples evolving over time through a combination of sampling and re-sampling steps. The re-sampling step is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-03-17 Deborshee Sen , Alexandre Thiery , Ajay Jasra