相关论文: A Bayesian Skew-heavy-tailed modelling for loss re…

Currently, legal requirements demand that insurance companies increase their emphasis on monitoring the risks linked to the underwriting and asset management activities. Regarding underwriting risks, the main uncertainties that insurers…

Insurance data can be asymmetric with heavy tails, causing inadequate adjustments of the usually applied models. To deal with this issue, hierarchical models for collective risk with heavy-tails of the claims distributions that take also…

We develop an unsupervised mixture model for non-negative, skewed and heavy-tailed data, such as losses in actuarial and risk management applications. The mixture has a lognormal component, which is usually appropriate for the body of the…

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

In this paper we present a novel methodology to perform Bayesian model selection in linear models with heavy-tailed distributions. We consider a finite mixture of distributions to model a latent variable where each component of the mixture…

Loss development modelling is the actuarial practice of predicting the total 'ultimate' losses incurred on a set of policies once all claims are reported and settled. This poses a challenging prediction task as losses frequently take years…

In many large-scale inverse problems, such as computed tomography and image deblurring, characterization of sharp edges in the solution is desired. Within the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, edge-preservation is often achieved using…

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving…

In this paper we examine the claims reserving problem using Tweedie's compound Poisson model. We develop the maximum likelihood and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation approaches to fit the model and then compare the estimated…

Our goal is to develop a Bayesian model averaging technique in linear regression models that accommodates heavier tailed error densities than the normal distribution. Motivated by the use of the Huber loss function in the presence of…

This paper proposes a robust Bayesian accelerated failure time model for censored survival data. We develop a new family of life-time distributions using a scale mixture of the generalized gamma distributions, where we propose a novel super…

A common approach to the claims reserving problem is based on generalized linear models (GLM). Within this framework, the claims in different origin and development years are assumed to be independent variables. If this assumption is…

This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…

We propose a stochastic model for claims reserving that captures dependence along development years within a single triangle. This dependence is of autoregressive form of order $p$ and is achieved through the use of latent variables. We…

Flexible spatial models that allow transitions between tail dependence classes have recently appeared in the literature. However, inference for these models is computationally prohibitive, even in moderate dimensions, due to the necessity…

We develop new flexible univariate models for light-tailed and heavy-tailed data, which extend a hierarchical representation of the generalized Pareto (GP) limit for threshold exceedances. These models can accommodate departure from…

We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

In this work, we develop a constructive modeling framework for extreme threshold exceedances in repeated observations of spatial fields, based on general product mixtures of random fields possessing light or heavy-tailed margins and various…

It is a well known fact that recovery rates tend to go down when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. We demonstrate how the loss given default model with the default and recovery dependent via the latent systematic risk…