相关论文: How to derive skill from the Fractions Skill Score

In climate science and meteorology, high-resolution local precipitation (rain and snowfall) predictions are limited by the computational costs of simulation-based methods. Statistical downscaling, or super-resolution, is a common workaround…

In the heteroscedastic linear model, the weighted least squares (WLS) estimate of the model coefficients is more efficient than the ordinary least squares (OLS) esti- mate. However, the practical application of WLS is challenging because it…

The pythagorean fuzzy set (PFS) which is developed based on intuitionistic fuzzy set, is more efficient in elaborating and disposing uncertainties in indeterminate situations, which is a very reason of that PFS is applied in various kinds…

Consider two forecasters, each making a single prediction for a sequence of events over time. We ask a relatively basic question: how might we compare these forecasters, either online or post-hoc, while avoiding unverifiable assumptions on…

Finding persistent sparse (PS) flow is critical to early warning of many threats. Previous works have predominantly focused on either heavy or persistent flows, with limited attention given to PS flows. Although some recent studies pay…

The focus of nowcasting development is transitioning from physically motivated advection methods to purely data-driven Machine Learning (ML) approaches. Nevertheless, recent work indicates that incorporating advection into the ML value…

Fine-grained domain generalization (FGDG) is a more challenging task than traditional DG tasks due to its small inter-class variations and relatively large intra-class disparities. When domain distribution changes, the vulnerability of…

Forecasting a particular variable can depend upon temporal or spatial scale. Temporal variations that indicate variations with time, reflect the stochasticity present in the variable. Spatial variation usually are dominant in climatology…

Fractal surfaces are ubiquitous in nature as well as in the sciences. The examples range from the cloud boundaries to the corroded surfaces. Fractal dimension gives a measure of the irregularity in the object under study. We present a…

Complex scientific models where the likelihood cannot be evaluated present a challenge for statistical inference. Over the past two decades, a wide range of algorithms have been proposed for learning parameters in computationally feasible…

The dynamic time scan forecasting method relies on the premise that the most important pattern in a time series precedes the forecasting window, i.e., the last observed values. Thus, a scan procedure is applied to identify similar patterns,…

Recent research on model interpretability in natural language processing extensively uses feature scoring methods for identifying which parts of the input are the most important for a model to make a prediction (i.e. explanation or…

Instruction tuning is now the default way to train and adapt large language models, but many instruction--input--output pairs are only weakly specified: for a given input, the same output can remain plausible under several alternative…

Uncertainty quantification is a set of techniques that measure confidence in language models. They can be used, for example, to detect hallucinations or alert users to review uncertain predictions. To be useful, these confidence scores must…

Functional time series whose sample elements are recorded sequentially over time are frequently encountered with increasing technology. Recent studies have shown that analyzing and forecasting of functional time series can be performed…

Accurate estimation for extent of cross{sectional dependence in large panel data analysis is paramount to further statistical analysis on the data under study. Grouping more data with weak relations (cross{sectional dependence) together…

Functional quantile regression (FQR) is a useful alternative to mean regression for functional data as it provides a comprehensive understanding of how scalar predictors influence the conditional distribution of functional responses. In…

We introduce a flexible framework that produces high-quality almost-exact matches for causal inference. Most prior work in matching uses ad-hoc distance metrics, often leading to poor quality matches, particularly when there are irrelevant…

Residuals in regression models are often spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on…

We study the new feature utility prediction problem: statistically testing whether adding a new feature to the data representation can improve predictive accuracy on a supervised learning task. In many applications, identifying new…