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Deep generative models have shown tremendous capability in data density estimation and data generation from finite samples. While these models have shown impressive performance by learning correlations among features in the data, some…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Aneesh Komanduri , Xintao Wu , Yongkai Wu , Feng Chen

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-13 Jiawei Fu , Donald P. Green

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the…

Counterfactual frameworks have grown popular in machine learning for both explaining algorithmic decisions but also defining individual notions of fairness, more intuitive than typical group fairness conditions. However, state-of-the-art…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-01-09 Lucas de Lara , Alberto González-Sanz , Nicholas Asher , Laurent Risser , Jean-Michel Loubes

Consider the case where causal relations among variables can be described as a Gaussian linear structural equation model. This paper deals with the problem of clarifying how the variance of a response variable would have changed if a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-07-09 Zhihong Cai , Manabu Kuroki

A fundamental issue in causal inference for Big Observational Data is confounding due to covariate imbalances between treatment groups. This can be addressed by designing the data prior to analysis. Existing design methods, developed for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-17 Yumin Zhang , Arman Sabbaghi

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

We tackle the problem of computing counterfactual explanations -- minimal changes to the features that flip an undesirable model prediction. We propose a solution to this question for linear Support Vector Machine (SVMs) models. Moreover,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-16 Sebastian Salazar , Samuel Denton , Ansaf Salleb-Aouissi

Comparing two samples of data, we observe a change in the distribution of an outcome variable. In the presence of multiple explanatory variables, how much of the change can be explained by each possible cause? We develop a new estimation…

Counterfactuals are widely used to explain ML model predictions by providing alternative scenarios for obtaining the more desired predictions. They can be generated by a variety of methods that optimize different, sometimes conflicting,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-05 Ignacy Stępka , Mateusz Lango , Jerzy Stefanowski

Counterfactual explanations have been a popular method of post-hoc explainability for a variety of settings in Machine Learning. Such methods focus on explaining classifiers by generating new data points that are similar to a given…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-21 Joshua Nathaniel Williams , Anurag Katakkar , Hoda Heidari , J. Zico Kolter

Counterfactuals, serving as one of the emerging type of model interpretations, have recently received attention from both researchers and practitioners. Counterfactual explanations formalize the exploration of ``what-if'' scenarios, and are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-17 Fan Yang , Sahan Suresh Alva , Jiahao Chen , Xia Hu

We study a new model where the potential outcomes, corresponding to the values of a (possibly continuous) treatment, are linked through common factors. The factors can be estimated using a panel of regressors. We propose a procedure to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-01-09 Jad Beyhum

Meta-analysis, by synthesizing effect estimates from multiple studies conducted in diverse settings, stands at the top of the evidence hierarchy in clinical research. Yet, conventional approaches based on fixed- or random-effects models…

In current visual model training, models often rely on only limited sufficient causes for their predictions, which makes them sensitive to distribution shifts or the absence of key features. Attribution methods can accurately identify a…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-11-18 Yannan Chen , Ruoyu Chen , Bin Zeng , Wei Wang , Shiming Liu , Qunli Zhang , Zheng Hu , Laiyuan Wang , Yaowei Wang , Xiaochun Cao

The development of causal prediction models is challenged by the fact that the outcome is only observable for the applied (factual) intervention and not for its alternatives (the so-called counterfactuals); in medicine we only know…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-29 Stefan Schrod , Fabian Sinz , Michael Altenbuchinger

Existing tools for explaining complex models and systems are associational rather than causal and do not provide mechanistic understanding. We propose a new notion called counterfactual explainability for causal attribution that is…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Zijun Gao , Qingyuan Zhao

Molecular property prediction is a crucial task that guides the design of new compounds, including drugs and materials. While explainable artificial intelligence methods aim to scrutinize model predictions by identifying influential…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-27 Łukasz Janisiów , Marek Kochańczyk , Bartosz Zieliński , Tomasz Danel

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

A key challenge in environmental health research is unmeasured spatial confounding, driven by unobserved spatially structured variables that influence both treatment and outcome. A common approach is to fit a spatial regression that models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-23 Sophie M. Woodward , Francesca Dominici , Jose R. Zubizarreta