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This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-12 Haoyu Wei , Hengrui Cai , Chengchun Shi , Rui Song

We study nonparametric inference for the causal dose-response (or treatment effect) curve when the treatment variable is continuous rather than binary or discrete. We do this by developing doubly robust confidence intervals for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-13 Charles R. Doss

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

Causal mediation analysis examines causal pathways linking exposures to disease. The estimation of interventional effects, which are mediation estimands that overcome certain identifiability problems of natural effects, has been advanced…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Tong Chen , Stijn Vansteelandt , David Burgner , Toby Mansell , Margarita Moreno-Betancur

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose a doubly robust approach to characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity in observational studies. We develop a frequentist inferential procedure that utilizes posterior distributions for both the propensity score and outcome…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-21 Heejun Shin , Joseph Antonelli

In the social and health sciences, researchers often make causal inferences using sensitive variables. These researchers, as well as the data holders themselves, may be ethically and perhaps legally obligated to protect the confidentiality…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-28 Sharmistha Guha , Jerome P. Reiter

With reference to a single mediator context, this brief report presents a model-based strategy to estimate counterfactual direct and indirect effects when the response variable is ordinal and the mediator is binary. Postulating a logistic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-25 Elena Stanghellini , Maria Kateri

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-05-14 Liang Jiang , Xiaobin Liu , Peter C. B. Phillips , Yichong Zhang

The doubly-robust (DR) estimator is popular for evaluating causal effects in observational studies and is often perceived as more desirable than inverse probability weighting (IPW) or outcome modeling alone because it provides extra…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Chengxin Yang , Laine E. Thomas , Fan Li

Researchers are often interested in learning not only the effect of treatments on outcomes, but also the pathways through which these effects operate. A mediator is a variable that is affected by treatment and subsequently affects outcome.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-22 Jeremiah Jones , Ashkan Ertefaie , Robert L. Strawderman

Instrumental variables are commonly used to estimate effects of a treatment afflicted by unmeasured confounding, and in practice instruments are often continuous (e.g., measures of distance, or treatment preference). However, available…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-05 Edward H. Kennedy , Scott A. Lorch , Dylan S. Small

We introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) estimator for heterogeneous treatment effects in the presence of endogeneity. Our estimator is based on double/debiased machine learning (DML) and uses efficient machine learning instruments…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Cyrill Scheidegger , Zijian Guo , Peter Bühlmann

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser

The average treatment effect, which is the difference in expectation of the counterfactuals, is probably the most popular target effect in causal inference with binary treatments. However, treatments may have effects beyond the mean, for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-02 Diego Martinez-Taboada , Aaditya Ramdas , Edward H. Kennedy

In this study, a scalable online kernel learning framework is proposed for estimating bidirectional causal effects in systems characterized by mutual dependence and heteroskedasticity. Traditional causal inference often focuses on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-24 Masahiro Tanaka

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

In this paper, we study the estimation and inference of the quantile treatment effect under covariate-adaptive randomization. We propose two estimation methods: (1) the simple quantile regression and (2) the inverse propensity score…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-26 Yichong Zhang , Xin Zheng

We study causal inference in sample selection models where a continuous or multivalued treatment affects both outcome and their observability (eg., employment or survey response). We generalized the widely used Lee (2009)'s bounds for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-29 Ying-Ying Lee , Chu-An Liu