相关论文: Dynamic Term Structure Models with Nonlinearities …

Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been an ubiquitous, and controversial, part of macroeconomics for decades. In this paper, we approach DSGEs purely as statstical models. We do this by applying two common model…

Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling…

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different…

In this work, we consider a state estimation problem for large-scale nonlinear processes in the absence of first-principles process models. By exploiting process operation data, both process modeling and state estimation design are…

We present a straightforward and efficient way to control unstable robotic systems using an estimated dynamics model. Specifically, we show how to exploit the differentiability of Gaussian Processes to create a state-dependent linearized…

We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes…

In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly…

Discrete time spatial time series data arise routinely in meteorological and environmental studies. Inference and prediction associated with them are mostly carried out using any of the several variants of the linear state space model that…

Gaussian processes retain the linear model either as a special case, or in the limit. We show how this relationship can be exploited when the data are at least partially linear. However from the perspective of the Bayesian posterior, the…

Learning time-series models is useful for many applications, such as simulation and forecasting. In this study, we consider the problem of actively learning time-series models while taking given safety constraints into account. For…

Financial markets are integral to a country's economic success, yet their complex nature raises challenging issues for predicting their behaviors. There is a growing demand for an integrated system that explores the vast and diverse data in…

Nonlinear dynamic models are widely used for characterizing functional forms of processes that govern complex biological pathway systems. Over the past decade, validation and further development of these models became possible due to data…

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

We present a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for bivariate price-realized volatility time series in financial forecasting. A novel dynamic gamma process model adopted for realized volatility is integrated with traditional Bayesian…

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse…

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

Gaussian process regression is increasingly applied for learning unknown dynamical systems. In particular, the implicit quantification of the uncertainty of the learned model makes it a promising approach for safety-critical applications.…