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Heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high-stakes applications demands models that simultaneously optimize precision, interpretability, and calibration. Many existing tree-based causal inference techniques, however, exhibit high…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-21 Yichen Liu

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

In this paper the estimation of the distribution function for potential outcomes to receiving or not receiving a treatment is studied. The approach is based on weighting observed data on the basis on estimated propensity score. A weighted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-04-30 Pier Luigi Conti , Livia De Giovanni

In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the expected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized controlled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Dennis Frauen , Tobias Hatt , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

In order to increase mental health equity among the most vulnerable and marginalized communities, it is important to increase access to high-quality therapists. One facet of addressing these needs, is to provide timely feedback to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-05-23 Victor Ardulov , Torrey A. Creed , David C. Atkins , Shrikanth Narayanan

The average treatment effect (ATE) is popularly used to assess the treatment effect. However, the ATE implicitly assumes a homogenous treatment effect even amongst individuals with different characteristics. In this paper, we mainly focus…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-03-10 Yunjian Yin , Lan Liu , Zhi Geng

In this paper we present a data-adaptive estimation procedure for estimation of average treatment effects in a time-to-event setting based on generalized random forests. In these kinds of settings, the definition of causal effect parameters…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-28 Helene C. W. Rytgaard , Claus T. Ekstrøm , Lars V. Kessing , Thomas A. Gerds

Difference-in-differences (DID) is a popular approach to identify the causal effects of treatments and policies in the presence of unmeasured confounding. DID identifies the sample average treatment effect in the treated (SATT). However, a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Audrey Renson , Ellicott C. Matthay , Kara E. Rudolph

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-04-19 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

The difference-in-differences (DiD) design is a quasi-experimental method for estimating treatment effects. In staggered DiD with multiple treatment groups and periods, estimation based on the two-way fixed effects model yields negative…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-05 Yuhao Deng , Le Kang

Individuals often respond differently to identical treatments, and characterizing such variability in treatment response is an important aim in the practice of personalized medicine. In this article, we describe a non-parametric accelerated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-06-22 Nicholas C. Henderson , Thomas A. Louis , Gary L. Rosner , Ravi Varadhan

Towards safe autonomous driving (AD), we consider the problem of learning models that accurately capture the diversity and tail quantiles of human driver behavior probability distributions, in interaction with an AD vehicle. Such models,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-28 Jia Yu Tee , Oliver De Candido , Wolfgang Utschick , Philipp Geiger

We study a pickup-and-delivery problem that arises when customers randomly submit requests over the course of a day from a choice of vendors on a collaborative e-commerce portal. Based on the attributes of a customer request, a dispatcher…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2024-08-15 Sara Stoia , Demetrio Laganà , Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

A/B tests serve the purpose of reliably identifying the effect of changes introduced in online services. It is common for online platforms to run a large number of simultaneous experiments by splitting incoming user traffic randomly in…

It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

Construction of just-in-time adaptive interventions, such as prompts delivered by mobile apps to promote and maintain behavioral change, requires knowledge about time-varying moderated effects to inform when and how we deliver intervention…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-06 Jieru Shi , Zhenke Wu , Walter Dempsey

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

Event studies often conflate direct treatment effects with indirect effects operating through endogenous covariate adjustment. We develop a dynamic panel event study framework that separates these effects. The framework allows for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-12 Irene Botosaru , Laura Liu

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-06-22 Hugo Bodory , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

This paper develops a novel nonparametric identification method for treatment effects in settings where individuals self-select into treatment sequences. I propose an identification strategy which relies on a dynamic version of standard…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-12-05 Pedro Picchetti
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