相关论文: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Estimating Skill M…

The game of darts has enjoyed great growth over the past decade with the perception of darts moving from that of a pub game to a game that is regularly scheduled on prime-time television in many countries including the U.K., Germany, the…

In this paper we examine the effectiveness of five mathematical models used to predict the outcomes of amateur darts games. These models not only predict the outcomes at the start of the game, but also update their estimations as the game…

Recent years have witnessed the significant advance in dense retrieval (DR) based on powerful pre-trained language models (PLM). DR models have achieved excellent performance in several benchmark datasets, while they are shown to be not as…

We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost one year of tournament data, corresponding to 167,492 dart throws in total, we use…

Discrete choice models (DCMs) are used to analyze individual decision-making in contexts such as transportation choices, political elections, and consumer preferences. DCMs play a central role in applied econometrics by enabling inference…

Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces, but also in other areas of society such as disaster management or professional sports. For simple effort…

Evaluating a soccer player's performance can be challenging due to the high costs and small margins involved in recruitment decisions. Raw observational statistics further complicate an accurate individual skill assessment as they do not…

The productive career of a professional athlete is limited compared to the normal human lifespan. Most professional athletes have retired by age 40. The early retirement age is due to a combination of age-related performance and life…

A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes…

Diffusion Models (DMs), also referred to as score-based diffusion models, utilize neural networks to specify score functions. Unlike most other probabilistic models, DMs directly model the score functions, which makes them more flexible to…

The complexity of game play in online multiplayer games has generated strong interest in modeling the different play styles or strategies used by players for success. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian regression approach for the online…

Numerous studies have compared machine learning (ML) and discrete choice models (DCMs) in predicting travel demand. However, these studies often lack generalizability as they compare models deterministically without considering contextual…

Wheelchair basketball, regulated by the International Wheelchair Basketball Federation, is a sport designed for individuals with physical disabilities. This paper presents a data-driven tool that effectively determines optimal team line-ups…

Proper training and analytics in eSports require accurately collected and annotated data. Most eSports research focuses exclusively on in-game data analysis, and there is a lack of prior work involving eSports athletes' psychophysiological…

Recent work has shown that Large Language Models (LLMs) can be incredibly effective for offline reinforcement learning (RL) by representing the traditional RL problem as a sequence modelling problem (Chen et al., 2021; Janner et al., 2021).…

The analysis of tabular datasets is highly prevalent both in scientific research and real-world applications of Machine Learning (ML). Unlike many other ML tasks, Deep Learning (DL) models often do not outperform traditional methods in this…

Sports organizations often want to estimate athlete strengths. For games with scored outcomes, a common approach is to assume observed game scores follow a normal distribution conditional on athletes' latent abilities, which may change over…

In this article, we study the decision-making process of chess players by using a chess engine to evaluate the moves across different pools of games. We quantified the decisiveness of each move during the games using a metric derived from…

Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In…

We propose a new class of games, called Multi-Games (MG), in which a given number of players play a fixed number of basic games simultaneously. In each round of the MG, each player will have a specific set of weights, one for each basic…