相关论文: Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantit…

Statistical models typically capture uncertainties in our knowledge of the corresponding real-world processes, however, it is less common for this uncertainty specification to capture uncertainty surrounding the values of the inputs to the…

Expert diagnostic support systems have been extensively studied. The practical applications of these systems in real-world scenarios have been somewhat limited due to well-understood shortcomings, such as lack of extensibility. More…

This work is focussed on the inversion task of inferring the distribution over parameters of interest leading to multiple sets of observations. The potential to solve such distributional inversion problems is driven by increasing…

There is a third way of implementing probability models and practicing. This is to answer questions put in terms of observables. This eliminates frequentist hypothesis testing and Bayes factors and it also eliminates parameter estimation.…

For complex latent variable models, the likelihood function is not available in closed form. In this context, a popular method to perform parameter estimation is Importance Weighted Variational Inference. It essentially maximizes the…

This paper develops the inferential theory for latent factor models estimated from large dimensional panel data with missing observations. We propose an easy-to-use all-purpose estimator for a latent factor model by applying principal…

Missing data is a common challenge when analyzing epidemiological data, and imputation is often used to address this issue. Here, we investigate the scenario where a covariate used in an analysis has missingness and will be imputed. There…

Statistical inference can be seen as information processing involving input information and output information that updates belief about some unknown parameters. We consider the Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical…

Interpreting data with mathematical models is an important aspect of real-world industrial and applied mathematical modeling. Often we are interested to understand the extent to which a particular set of data informs and constrains model…

Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…

We study a pricing setting where each customer is offered a contextualized price based on customer and/or product features. Often only historical sales data are available, so we observe whether a customer purchased a product at the price…

Providing accurate predictions is challenging for machine learning algorithms when the number of features is larger than the number of samples in the data. Prior knowledge can improve machine learning models by indicating relevant variables…

Machine learning (ML) models have been quite successful in predicting outcomes in many applications. However, in some cases, domain experts might have a judgment about the expected outcome that might conflict with the prediction of ML…

Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…

Log-linear models are typically fitted to contingency table data to describe and identify the relationship between different categorical variables. However, the data may include observed zero cell entries. The presence of zero cell entries…

We propose a learning framework for calibrating predictive models to make loss-controlling prediction for exchangeable data, which extends our recently proposed conformal loss-controlling prediction for more general cases. By comparison,…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Experts' beliefs embody a present state of knowledge. It is desirable to take this knowledge into account when doing analyses or making decisions. Yet ranking experts based on the merit of their beliefs is a difficult task. In this paper we…

Using mathematical models to assist in the interpretation of experiments is becoming increasingly important in research across applied mathematics, and in particular in biology and ecology. In this context, accurate parameter estimation is…

We study the problem of estimating a functional or a parameter in the context where outcome is subject to nonignorable missingness. We completely avoid modeling the regression relation, while allowing the propensity to be modeled by a…