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Background: Policy evaluation studies that assess how state-level policies affect health-related outcomes are foundational to health and social policy research. The relative ability of newer analytic methods to address confounding, a key…

This paper addresses the challenges of giving a causal interpretation to vector autoregressions (VARs). I show that under independence assumptions VARs can identify average treatment effects, average causal responses, or a mix of the two,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-29 Raimondo Pala

Introduction: Methods now exist to detect residual confounding. One requires an "indicator" with two key properties: conditional independence of the outcome (given exposure and measured covariates) absent confounding and other model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-10-26 W. Dana Flanders , Matthew J. Strickland , Mitchel Klein

Omitted variables are one of the most important threats to the identification of causal effects. Several widely used methods assess the impact of omitted variables on empirical conclusions by comparing measures of selection on observables…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-05 Paul Diegert , Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier

Counterfactuals have become a popular technique nowadays for interacting with black-box machine learning models and understanding how to change a particular instance to obtain a desired outcome from the model. However, most existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-09-29 Philip Naumann , Eirini Ntoutsi

This article proposes different tests for treatment effect heterogeneity when the outcome of interest, typically a duration variable, may be right-censored. The proposed tests study whether a policy 1) has zero distributional (average)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-19 Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

We generalize the low-rank decomposition problem, such as principal and independent component analysis (PCA, ICA) for continuous-time vector-valued signals and provide a model-agnostic implicit neural signal representation framework to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-15 Shayan K. Azmoodeh , Krishna Subramani , Paris Smaragdis

Synthetic Control Methods (SCMs) have become a fundamental tool for comparative case studies. The core idea behind SCMs is to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual outcomes for a treated unit using a weighted combination…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-10 Masahiro Kato , Akari Ohda

Observational studies are the primary source of data for causal inference, but it is challenging when existing unmeasured confounding. Missing data problems are also common in observational studies. How to obtain the causal effects from the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-05-15 Renzhong Zheng

This paper provides a nonparametric framework for causal inference with categorical outcomes under binary treatment and binary instrument settings. I decompose the observed joint probability of outcomes and treatment into marginal…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-11-11 Onil Boussim

The challenge of balancing fairness and predictive accuracy in machine learning models, especially when sensitive attributes such as race, gender, or age are considered, has motivated substantial research in recent years. Counterfactual…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-21 Bowei Tian , Ziyao Wang , Shwai He , Wanghao Ye , Guoheng Sun , Yucong Dai , Yongkai Wu , Ang Li

Estimating an individual's potential response to interventions from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy or economics. In this setting, it is often the case that combinations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-23 Sonali Parbhoo , Stefan Bauer , Patrick Schwab

Synthetic control methods often rely on matching pre-treatment characteristics (called predictors) of the treated unit. The choice of predictors and how they are weighted plays a key role in the performance and interpretability of synthetic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-02 Jaume Vives-i-Bastida

Causal mediation analysis has historically been limited in two important ways: (i) a focus has traditionally been placed on binary treatments and static interventions, and (ii) direct and indirect effect decompositions have been pursued…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-13 Nima S. Hejazi , Kara E. Rudolph , Mark J. van der Laan , Iván Díaz

Causal inference from observational data often relies on the assumption of no unmeasured confounding, an assumption frequently violated in practice due to unobserved or poorly measured covariates. Proximal causal inference (PCI) offers a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-02 Myeonghun Yu , Xu Shi , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a useful tool to investigate the heterogeneity of a disease population with time-to-event data. We propose a new method based on non-parametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE), which facilitates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-03 Teng Fei , John Hanfelt , Limin Peng

Causal decomposition analysis aims to assess the effect of modifying risk factors on reducing social disparities in outcomes. Recently, this analysis has incorporated individual characteristics when modifying risk factors by utilizing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-16 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee

One of the most common ways researchers compare survival outcomes across treatments when confounding is present is using Cox regression. This model is limited by its underlying assumption of proportional hazards; in some cases, substantial…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-02-02 Elizabeth A. Handorf , Marc Smaldone , Sujana Movva , Nandita Mitra

This paper discusses endogenous treatment models with duration outcomes, competing risks and random right censoring. The endogeneity issue is solved using a discrete instrumental variable. We show that the competing risks model generates a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-04 Jad Beyhum , Jean-Pierre Florens , Ingrid Van Keilegom

Medical professionals evaluating alternative treatment plans for a patient often encounter time varying confounders, or covariates that affect both the future treatment assignment and the patient outcome. The recently proposed…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-21 Garima Gupta , Lovekesh Vig , Gautam Shroff
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