相关论文: A three-state coupled Markov switching model for C…

To reduce the biases of traditional survey-based methods, this paper proposes an epidemic model-based approach to inference the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 utilizing the publicly reported confirmed case number. We construct…

This manuscript proposes a model of $n$ distinct populations interaction structured SEIR to describe the spread of COVID-19 pandemic diseases. The proposed model has the flexibility to include geographically separated communities as well as…

We introduce a minimalist outbreak forecasting model that combines data-driven parameter estimation with variational data assimilation. By focusing on the fundamental components of nonlinear disease transmission and representing data in a…

Understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for improved control and social distancing strategies. To that effect, we have employed the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, refined by contact tracing and…

We study the reported data from the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in January - May 2020 in 119 countries. We observe that the time series of active cases in individual countries (the difference of the total number of confirmed infections and…

Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…

Stochastic epidemic models which incorporate interactions between space and human mobility are a key tool to inform prioritisation of outbreak control to appropriate locations. However, methods for fitting such models to national-level…

Comparing how different populations have suffered under COVID-19 is a core part of ongoing investigations into how public policy and social inequalities influence the number of and severity of COVID-19 cases. But COVID-19 incidence can vary…

This paper presents a study on a compartmental epidemic model for COVID-19, examining the stability of its equilibrium points upon the introduction of vaccination as a strategy to mitigate the spread of the disease. Initially, the SIQR…

The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 has posed a dire threat to the public. Human mobility has changed in various ways over the course of the pandemic. Despite current studies on common mobility metrics, research specifically on…

Mexico, like the rest of the world, is currently facing the The COVID-19 pandemic. Given the size of its territory, the efforts to contain the disease have involved both national and regional measures. For this work, the curves of daily new…

Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…

The spread of COVID-19 revealed that transmission risk patterns are not homogenous across different cities and communities, and various heterogeneous features can influence the spread trajectories. Hence, for predictive pandemic monitoring,…

In this work, we extend our previously developed compartmental SEIQRD model for SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium. We introduce SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, vaccines, and seasonality in our model, as their addition has proven necessary for modelling…

We study the spreading of cooperative infections in an empirical temporal network of contacts between people, including health care workers and patients, in a hospital. The system exhibits a phase transition leading to one or several…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

While most existing epidemic models focus on the influence of isolated factors, infectious disease transmission is inherently shaped by the complex interplay of multiple interacting elements. To better capture real-world dynamics, it is…

In this paper, a stochastic SEQIR epidemic model with Markovian regime-switching is proposed and investigated. The governmental policy and implement efficiency are concerned by a generalized incidence function of the susceptible class. We…

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…