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While averages and typical fluctuations often play a major role to understand the behavior of a non-equilibrium system, this nonetheless is not always true. Rare events and large fluctuations are also pivotal when a thorough analysis of the…

Estimating the expectation of a real-valued function of a random variable from sample data is a critical aspect of statistical analysis, with far-reaching implications in various applications. Current methodologies typically assume…

This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a…

Accurate estimation of the frequency and magnitude of successive extreme events in energy demand is critical for strategic resource planning. Traditional approaches based on extreme value theory (EVT) are typically limited to modelling…

Viral load (VL) in the respiratory tract is the leading proxy for assessing infectiousness potential. Understanding the dynamics of disease-related VL within the host is very important and help to determine different policy and health…

We investigate a weighted Multilevel Richardson-Romberg extrapolation for the ergodic approximation of invariant distributions of diffusions adapted from the one introduced in~[Lemaire-Pag\`es, 2013] for regular Monte Carlo simulation. In a…

To comply with increasingly stringent international standards in risk management and regulation, several approaches have been developed in the literature for forecasting tail-risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall…

In this paper, we provide a multiscale perspective on the problem of maximum marginal likelihood estimation. We consider and analyse a diffusion-based maximum marginal likelihood estimation scheme using ideas from multiscale dynamics. Our…

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and…

The assessment of safety is an important aspect of the evaluation of new therapies in clinical trials, with analyses of adverse events being an essential part of this. Standard methods for the analysis of adverse events such as the…

Here we study the long time behavior of an advection-diffusion equation with a general time varying (including random) shear flow imposing no-flux boundary conditions on channel walls. We derive the asymptotic approximation of the scalar…

A novel machine learning algorithm is presented, serving as a data-driven turbulence modeling tool for Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations. This machine learning algorithm, called the Tensor Basis Random Forest (TBRF), is…

Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure that is being used extensively in various domains. We develop a new formula for the gradient of the CVaR in the form of a conditional expectation. Based on this formula, we…

The URANS equations provide a computationally efficient tool to simulate unsteady turbulent flows for a wide range of applications. To account for the errors introduced by the turbulence closure model, recent works have adopted data…

The Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES) are the two most popular risk measures in banking and insurance regulation. To bridge between the two regulatory risk measures, the Probability Equivalent Level of VaR-ES (PELVE) was…

The aim of this paper is to develop estimation and inference methods for the drift parameters of multivariate L\'evy-driven continuous-time autoregressive processes of order $p\in\mathbb{N}$. Starting from a continuous-time observation of…

Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) quantifies systemic financial risk by measuring the loss quantile of one asset, conditional on another asset experiencing distress. We develop a Transformer-based methodology that integrates financial news…

We consider the combination of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) forecasts when a large pool of candidate forecasts is available. Given the limited literature in this area, we implement a variety of new combining methods. In…

The Lambda Value-at-Risk (Lambda-VaR) is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which has been actively studied in quantitative finance. Over the past two decades, the Expected Shortfall (ES) has become one of the most important risk…

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…