相关论文: Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Tim…

Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks relies on approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias the results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute the epidemic threshold…

Infectious diseases occur when pathogens from other individuals or animals infect a person, resulting in harm to both individuals and society as a whole. The outbreak of such diseases can pose a significant threat to human health. However,…

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time…

Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…

Metapopulation models describing cities with different populations coupled by the travel of individuals are of great importance in the understanding of disease spread on a large scale. An important example is the Rvachev-Longini model [{\it…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policy makers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a…

Epidemic dynamics in a stochastic network of interacting epidemic centers is considered. The epidemic and migration processes are modelled by Markov's chains. Explicit formulas for probability distribution of the migration process are…

Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…

There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in…

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent…

Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders,…

We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic…

This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard…

The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…

The non-equilibrium phase transition in models for epidemic spreading with long-range infections in combination with incubation times is investigated by field-theoretical and numerical methods. Here the spreading process is modelled by…

Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…

Health-policy planning requires evidence on the burden that epidemics place on healthcare systems. Multiple, often dependent, datasets provide a noisy and fragmented signal from the unobserved epidemic process including transmission and…

The spatial propagation of many livestock infectious diseases critically depends on the animal movements among premises; so the knowledge of movement data may help us to detect, manage and control an outbreak. The identification of robust…

Early detection of disease outbreaks is of paramount importance to implementing intervention strategies to mitigate the severity and duration of the outbreak. We build methodology that utilizes the characteristic profile of disease…