相关论文: Dominant Drivers of National Inflation

This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…

We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…

This paper studies whether a small set of dominant countries can account for most of the dynamics of regional oil demand and improve forecasting performance. We focus on dominant drivers within the OECD and a broad GVAR sample covering over…

In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…

Inflation is a major determinant for allocation decisions and its forecast is a fundamental aim of governments and central banks. However, forecasting inflation is not a trivial task, as its prediction relies on low frequency, highly…

Monetary inflation is a sustained increase in the money supply than can result in price inflation, which is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services. The objectives of this paper were to develop economic models to (1)…

Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…

Growth-at-Risk has recently become a key measure of macroeconomic tail-risk, which has seen it be researched extensively. Surprisingly, the same cannot be said for Inflation-at-Risk where both tails, deflation and high inflation, are of key…

Motivated by machine learning, we introduce a novel method for randomly generating inflationary potentials. Namely, we treat the Taylor coefficients of the potential as weights in a single-layer neural network and use gradient ascent to…

We examine the hypothesis that inflation is primarily driven by vacuum energy at a scale indicated by gauge coupling unification. Concretely, we consider a class of hybrid inflation models wherein the vacuum energy associated with a grand…

This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…

The notion that an independent central bank reduces a country's inflation is a controversial hypothesis. To date, it has not been possible to satisfactorily answer this question because the complex macroeconomic structure that gives rise to…

Inflation remains a persistent challenge for many African countries. This research investigates the critical role of machine learning (ML) in understanding and managing inflation in Ghana, emphasizing its significance for the country's…

Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…

This paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to undertake a data-driven study on the systemic nature of global inflation. We start by investigating country CPI inflation over the past 70 years. There, we highlight the…

The estimation of causal effects with observational data continues to be a very active research area. In recent years, researchers have developed new frameworks which use machine learning to relax classical assumptions necessary for the…

This study aims to identify the leading of inflation indicators of monetary policy in DRC. The results reveal that the most relevant inflation indicators usually come from the monetary origin than the real sector. Variance decomposition…

A reformulation of inflationary model analyses appeared recently, in which inflationary observables are determined by the structure of a pole in the inflaton kinetic term rather than the shape of the inflaton potential. We comprehensively…

It has become standard practice to take the logarithmic growth of the scale factor as a measure of the amount of inflation, despite the well-known fact that this is only an approximation for the true amount of inflation required to solve…

This paper provides robust, new evidence on the causal drivers of market troughs. We demonstrate that conclusions about these triggers are critically sensitive to model specification, moving beyond restrictive linear models with a flexible…