相关论文: Understanding electricity prices beyond the merit …

Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have…

This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, frequentist versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications, for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, both with and without renewable energy…

The increasing penetration of renewable energy in recent years has led to more uncertainties in power systems. In order to maintain system reliability and security, electricity market operators need to keep certain reserves in the…

Price-based demand response (PBDR) has recently been attributed great economic but also environmental potential. However, the determination of its short-term effects on carbon emissions requires the knowledge of marginal emission factors…

The increasing integration of renewable energy sources has led to greater volatility and unpredictability in electricity generation, posing challenges to grid stability. Ancillary service markets, such as the German control reserve market,…

To enable an efficient electricity market, a good pricing scheme is of vital importance. Among many practical schemes, customized pricing is commonly believed to be able to best exploit the flexibility in the demand side. However, due to…

Algorithmic decisions in critical domains such as hiring, college admissions, and lending are often based on rankings. Given the impact of these decisions on individuals, organizations, and population groups, it is essential to understand…

The increasing interest in demand-side management (DSM) as part of the energy cost optimization calls for effective methods to determine representative electricity prices for energy optimization and scheduling investigations. We propose a…

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Coordination between heat and electricity markets is essential to achieve a cost-effective and efficient operation of the energy system. In the current sequential market practice, the heat market is cleared before the electricity market and…

Data analytics and machine learning techniques are being rapidly adopted into the power system, including power system control as well as electricity market design. In this paper, from an adversarial machine learning point of view, we…

In this study, we develop a theoretical model of strategic equilibrium bidding and price-setting behaviour by heterogeneous and boundedly rational electricity producers and a grid operator in a single electricity market under uncertain…

In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…

We conduct the first rigorous study of electricity price volatility for the full panel of electricity prices across three European generation zones. By interpreting the observed day-ahead prices as local averages of a latent price process…

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time…

Traditional competitive markets do not account for negative externalities; indirect costs that some participants impose on others, such as the cost of over-appropriating a common-pool resource (which diminishes future stock, and thus…

Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German…

Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences…

In two-stage electricity markets, renewable power producers enter the day-ahead market with a forecast of future power generation and then reconcile any forecast deviation in the real-time market at a penalty. The choice of the forecast…

Wind energy has emerged as one of the most vital and economically viable forms of renewable energy. The integration of wind energy sources into power grids across the globe has been increasing substantially, largely due to the higher levels…