相关论文: Understanding electricity prices beyond the merit …
Climate and energy policy targets of the European Commission aim to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. For low-carbon and net-neutral energy systems primarily based on variable renewable power generation, issues…
The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…
We propose a novel machine learning approach for probabilistic forecasting of hourly day-ahead electricity prices. In contrast with the recent advances in data-rich probabilistic forecasting, which approximates distributions with few…
This paper undertakes a comprehensive investigation of electricity price forecasting methods, focused on the Irish Integrated Single Electricity Market, particularly on changes during recent periods of high volatility. The primary objective…
Our paper aims to model and forecast the electricity price by taking a completely new perspective on the data. It will be the first approach which is able to combine the insights of market structure models with extensive and modern…
The marginal price of electricity traditionally depends on the dual variables associated with relevant optimization goals. Particularly, in the optimal power flow realm, prices represent the cost of supplying an additional unit of power at…
Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…
The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…
While deep learning gradually penetrates operational planning, its inherent prediction errors may significantly affect electricity prices. This letter examines how prediction errors propagate into electricity prices, revealing notable…
The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has…
In this paper we include dependency structures for electricity price forecasting and forecasting evaluation. We work with off-peak and peak time series from the German-Austrian day-ahead price, hence we analyze bivariate data. We first…
While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique,…
With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex…
The liberalization of electricity markets and the development of renewable energy sources has led to new challenges for decision makers. These challenges are accompanied by an increasing uncertainty about future electricity price movements.…
Motivated by the increasing integration among electricity markets, in this paper we propose two different methods to incorporate market integration in electricity price forecasting and to improve the predictive performance. First, we…
As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of…
The energy transition is profoundly reshaping electricity market dynamics. It makes it essential to understand how renewable energy generation actually impacts electricity prices, among all other market drivers. These insights are critical…
Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…
Electricity market mechanisms designed to steer sustainable generation of electricity play an important role for the energy transition intended to mitigate climate change. One of the major problems is to complement volatile renewable energy…
This paper examines the dependence between electricity prices, demand, and renewable energy sources by means of a multivariate copula model {while studying Germany, the widest studied market in Europe}. The inter-dependencies are…