相关论文: Model-based tools for assessing space and time cha…
Record-breaking temperature events are now very frequently in the news, viewed as evidence of climate change. With this as motivation, we undertake the first substantial spatial modeling investigation of temperature record-breaking across…
Acknowledging a considerable literature on modeling daily temperature data, we propose a multi-level spatio-temporal model which introduces several innovations in order to explain the daily maximum temperature in the summer period over 60…
Record-breaking temperature events are now frequently in the news, proffered as evidence of climate change, and often bring significant economic and human impacts. Our previous work undertook the first substantial spatial modelling…
The increasing frequency of extreme temperature events, such as daily maximum temperature ($T_x$) records, underscores the need for robust tools to understand their drivers and predict their occurrence. Previous studies have identified…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…
The modeling of spatio-temporal trends in temperature extremes can help better understand the structure and frequency of heatwaves in a changing climate. Here, we study annual temperature maxima over Southern Europe using a century-spanning…
There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…
Climate is known for being characterised by strong non-linearity and chaotic behaviour. Nevertheless, few studies in climate science adopt statistical methods specifically designed for non-stationary or non-linear systems. Here we show how…
An exceedance region is the set of locations in a spatial domain where a process exceeds some threshold. Examples of exceedance regions include areas where ozone concentrations exceed safety standards, there is high risk for tornadoes or…
Urbanization of an area is known to increase the temperature of the surrounding area. This phenomenon -- a so-called urban heat island (UHI) -- occurs at a local level over a period of time and has lasting impacts for historical data…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
Heat wave (HW) events are becoming more frequent, and they have important consequences because of the negative effects they can have not only on the human population in health terms, but also on biodiversity and agriculture. This motivated…
In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…
Climate change is commonly associated with an overall increase in mean temperature in a defined past time period. Many studies consider temperature trends at the global scale, but the literature is lacking in in-depth analysis of the…
Very unhealthy air quality is consistently connected with numerous diseases. Appropriate extreme analysis and accurate predictions are in rising demand for exploring potential linked causes and for providing suggestions for the…
Precipitation exceedance probabilities are widely used in engineering design, risk assessment, and floodplain management. While common approaches like NOAA Atlas 14 assume that extreme precipitation characteristics are stationary over time,…
In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…
Extreme temperature events have traditionally been detected assuming a unimodal distribution of temperature data. We found that surface temperature data can be described more accurately with a multimodal rather than a unimodal distribution.…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…