相关论文: Empirical Macroeconomics and DSGE Modeling in Stat…

A number of macroeconomic theories, very popular in the 1980s, seem to have completely disappeared and been replaced by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We will argue that this replacement is due to a tacit…

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are nowadays a crucial quantitative tool for policy-makers. However, they did not emerge spontaneously. They are built upon previously established ideas in Economics and relatively recent…

By generalizing the measurements on the game experiments of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium, we study the dynamical pattern in a representative dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE). The DSGE model describes the entanglements of the…

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are established tools to model physical phenomena whose dynamics are affected by random noise. By estimating parameters of an SDE intrinsic randomness of a system around its drift can be identified…

This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models with multiple…

Is the typical specification of the Euler equation for investment employed in DSGE models consistent with aggregate macro data? Using state-of-the-art econometric methods that are robust to weak instruments and exploit information in…

This paper shows that diagnostic expectations (DE) and rational expectations (RE) are not observationally equivalent in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using the frequency-domain framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2012,…

Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time-synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability,…

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provide a natural framework for modelling intrinsic stochasticity inherent in many continuous-time physical processes. When such processes are observed in multiple individuals or experimental units,…

This study proposes an approach based on a perturbation technique to construct global solutions to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE). The main idea is to expand a solution in a series of powers of a small parameter…

Geoscientific systems tend to be characterized by pronounced temporal non-stationarity, arising from seasonal and climatic variability in hydrometeorological drivers, and from natural and anthropogenic changes to land use and cover. As has…

Under some initial conditions, it is shown that time consistency requirements prevent rational expectation equilibrium (REE) existence for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models induced by consumer heterogeneity, in contrast to…

In official statistics, dual system estimation (DSE) is a well-known tool to estimate the size of a population. Two sources are linked, and the number of units that are missed by both sources is estimated. Often dual system estimation is…

The method of model averaging has become an important tool to deal with model uncertainty, for example in situations where a large amount of different theories exist, as are common in economics. Model averaging is a natural and formal…

Parameters of the mathematical model describing many practical dynamical systems are prone to vary due to aging or renewal, wear and tear, as well as changes in environmental or service conditions. These variabilities will adversely affect…

This paper presents a set of tests and an algorithm for agnostic, data-driven selection among macroeconomic DSGE models inspired by structure learning methods for DAGs. As the log-linear state-space solution to any DSGE model is also a DAG…

Over the last two decades, the science has come a long way from relying on only physical experiments and observations to experimentation using computer simulators. This chapter focusses on the modelling and analysis of data arising from…

This paper considers filtering, parameter estimation, and testing for potentially dynamically misspecified state-space models. When dynamics are misspecified, filtered values of state variables often do not satisfy model restrictions,…

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are popular tools to analyse time series data in many areas, such as mathematical finance, physics, and biology. They provide a mechanistic description of the phenomeon of interest, and their…

The importance of unspanned macroeconomic variables for Dynamic Term Structure Models has been intensively discussed in the literature. To our best knowledge the earlier studies considered only linear interactions between the economy and…