相关论文: High Resolution Spatio-Temporal Model for Room-Lev…
We consider the development of hyperbolic transport models for the propagation in space of an epidemic phenomenon described by a classical compartmental dynamics. The model is based on a kinetic description at discrete velocities of the…
Classical compartmental models in epidemiology often assume a homogeneous population for simplicity, which neglects the inherent heterogeneity among individuals. This assumption frequently leads to inaccurate predictions when applied to…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
One of the many unresolved questions that revolves around the Covid-19 pandemic is whether local outbreaks can depend on ambient conditions like temperature and relative humidity. In this paper, we develop a model that tries to explain and…
This paper proposes a hypothetical model for the dual role of respiratory aerosols and inflammatory exudates in the dynamics and progression of SARS-CoV-2 lung infection. Starting from a new paradigm in infectious disease transmission, we…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based…
Infectious disease outbreaks have precipitated a profusion of mathematical models. Epidemic curves predicted by these models are typically qualitatively similar, despite distinct model assumptions, but there is no theoretical explanation…
Recently the A/H1N1-2009 virus pandemic appeared in Mexico and in other nations. We present a study of this pandemic in the Mexican case using the SIR model to describe epidemics. This model is one of the simplest models but it has been a…
Epidemic outbreaks are an important healthcare challenge, especially in developing countries where they represent one of the major causes of mortality. Approaches that can rapidly target subpopulations for surveillance and control are…
Infectious disease models can be of great use for understanding the underlying mechanisms that influence the spread of diseases and predicting future disease progression. Modeling has been increasingly used to evaluate the potential impact…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
Natural ventilation can play an important role towards preventing the spread of airborne diseases in indoor environments. However, quantifying natural ventilation flow rates is a challenging task due to significant variability in the…
In addition to its public health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic has led to the shutdown and closure of workplaces with an estimated total cost of more than $16 trillion. Given the long hours an average person spends in buildings and indoor…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spread through the world. The model combines the SEIR-based model for…
Coupling within-host infection dynamics with population-level transmission remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling, especially for airborne pathogens with potential to spread indoor. The frequent emergence of such diseases…
Respiratory droplets exhaled during speaking, coughing or sneezing have been responsible for the spread of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The droplet dynamics depend on the surrounding air velocity, temperature and relative humidity.…