相关论文: Reliability of COVID-19 data and government polici…

We use the Newcomb-Benford law to test if countries have manipulated reported data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that democratic countries, countries with the higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, higher healthcare…

Because SARS-Cov-2 (COVID-19) statistics affect economic policies and political outcomes, governments have an incentive to control them. Manipulation may be less likely in democracies, which have checks to ensure transparency. We show that…

The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of…

Over the past few months, the outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been expanding over the world. A reliable and accurate dataset of the cases is vital for scientists to conduct related research and for policy-makers to make…

The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an active…

Background: A major question in Covid-19 research is whether democracies handled the Covid-19 pandemic crisis better or worse than authoritarian countries. However, it is important to consider the issues of democracy versus…

We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID--19 data provided by government health agencies of eleven different countries. Instead of using the (exact or approximate) solutions to the SIR (or other) model(s) to fit the…

This paper introduces new methods to study the changing dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths among the 50 worst-affected countries throughout 2020. First, we analyse the trajectories and turning points of rolling mortality rates to…

Benford's law is frequently used to evaluate the likihood that data is misrepresentative. Typically statistical tests measure the likihood. Another method of employing Benford's law is to compare the frequency of leading digits to the…

The coronavirus which appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan has spread out worldwide and caused the death of more than 280,000 people (as of May, 11 2020). Since February 2020, doubts were raised about the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths…

We address the task of identifying anomalous observations by analyzing digits under the lens of Benford's law. Motivated by the crucial objective of providing reliable statistical analysis of customs declarations, we answer one major and…

Quantifying the number of deaths caused by the COVID-19 crisis has been an ongoing challenge for scientists, and no golden standard to do so has yet been established. We propose a principled approach to calculate age-adjusted yearly excess…

An urgent problem in controlling COVID-19 spreading is to understand the role of undocumented infection. We develop a five-state model for COVID-19, taking into account the unique features of the novel coronavirus, with key parameters…

There are many hard-to-reconcile numbers circulating concerning Covid-19. Using reports from random testing, the fatality ratio per infection is evaluated and used to extract further information on the actual fraction of infections and the…

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of…

When pandemics like COVID-19 spread around the world, the rapidly evolving situation compels officials and executives to take prompt decisions and adapt policies depending on the current state of the disease. In this context, it is crucial…

As a consequence of missing data on tests for infection and imperfect accuracy of tests, reported rates of population infection by the SARS CoV-2 virus are lower than actual rates of infection. Hence, reported rates of severe illness…

The new corona virus disease -- COVID-2019 -- is rapidly spreading through the world. The availability of unbiased timely statistics of trends in disease events are a key to effective responses. But due to reporting delays, the most…

Knowledge about the daily number of new infections of Covid-19 is important because it is the basis for political decisions resulting in lockdowns and urgent health care measures. We use Germany as an example to illustrate shortcomings of…

The difference in COVID 19 death rates across political regimes has caught a lot of attention. The "efficient autocracy" view suggests that autocracies may be more efficient at putting in place policies that contain COVID 19 spread. On the…