相关论文: Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Meth…

This paper introduces structured machine learning regressions for high-dimensional time series data potentially sampled at different frequencies. The sparse-group LASSO estimator can take advantage of such time series data structures and…

Market economy closely connects aspects to all walks of life. The stock forecast is one of task among studies on the market economy. However, information on markets economy contains a lot of noise and uncertainties, which lead economy…

This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…

Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…

Many promising approaches to symbolic regression have been presented in recent years, yet progress in the field continues to suffer from a lack of uniform, robust, and transparent benchmarking standards. In this paper, we address this…

Quantitative models are an important decision-making factor for policy makers and investors. Predicting an economic recession with high accuracy and reliability would be very beneficial for the society. This paper assesses machine learning…

Symbolic regression is a machine learning technique, and it has seen many advancements in recent years, especially in genetic programming approaches (GPSR). Furthermore, it has been known for many years that constant optimization of…

This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…

Strong empirical evidence that one machine-learning algorithm A outperforms another one B ideally calls for multiple trials optimizing the learning pipeline over sources of variation such as data sampling, data augmentation, parameter…

In recent years, deep learning techniques have outperformed traditional models in many machine learning tasks. Deep neural networks have successfully been applied to address time series forecasting problems, which is a very important topic…

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading…

Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…

Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity…

Precipitation nowcasting is of great importance for weather forecast users, for activities ranging from outdoor activities and sports competitions to airport traffic management. In contrast to long-term precipitation forecasts which are…

As the amount of economic and other data generated worldwide increases vastly, a challenge for future generations of econometricians will be to master efficient algorithms for inference in empirical models with large information sets. This…

A 'nowcast' is a type of weather forecast which makes predictions in the very short term, typically less than two hours - a period in which traditional numerical weather prediction can be limited. This type of weather prediction has…

There has been an intense recent activity in embedding of very high dimensional and nonlinear data structures, much of it in the data science and machine learning literature. We survey this activity in four parts. In the first part we cover…

The paper uses structured machine learning regressions for nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with…

This paper explores the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for economic forecasting, focusing on predicting CPI inflation rates. The study explores a new approach that integrates…

The US stock market experienced instability following the recession (2007-2009). COVID-19 poses a significant challenge to US stock traders and investors. Traders and investors should keep up with the stock market. This is to mitigate risks…