相关论文: Benchmarking Econometric and Machine Learning Meth…

Despite marked progress over the past several decades, convective storm nowcasting remains a challenge because most nowcasting systems are based on linear extrapolation of radar reflectivity without much consideration for other…

In the setting of nonparametric regression, we propose and study a combination of stochastic gradient methods with Nystr\"om subsampling, allowing multiple passes over the data and mini-batches. Generalization error bounds for the studied…

In this paper, we assess whether using non-linear dimension reduction techniques pays off for forecasting inflation in real-time. Several recent methods from the machine learning literature are adopted to map a large dimensional dataset…

Long memory in the sense of slowly decaying autocorrelations is a stylized fact in many time series from economics and finance. The fractionally integrated process is the workhorse model for the analysis of these time series. Nevertheless,…

We introduce \underline{F}actor-\underline{A}ugmented \underline{Ma}trix \underline{R}egression (FAMAR) to address the growing applications of matrix-variate data and their associated challenges, particularly with high-dimensionality and…

The growing instability of both global and domestic economic environments has increased the risk of financial distress at the household level. However, traditional econometric models often rely on delayed and aggregated data, limiting their…

We provide a review of recent developments in the calculation of standard errors and test statistics for statistical inference. While much of the focus of the last two decades in economics has been on generating unbiased coefficients,…

General equilibrium macroeconomic models are a core tool used by policymakers to understand a nation's economy. They represent the economy as a collection of forward-looking actors whose behaviours combine, possibly with stochastic effects,…

Neuroscience has recently made much progress, expanding the complexity of both neural-activity measurements and brain-computational models. However, we lack robust methods for connecting theory and experiment by evaluating our new big…

First-order stochastic optimization methods are currently the most widely used class of methods for training deep neural networks. However, the choice of the optimizer has become an ad-hoc rule that can significantly affect the performance.…

The improvement of economic policymaking presents an opportunity for broad societal benefit, a notion that has inspired research towards AI-driven policymaking tools. AI policymaking holds the potential to surpass human performance through…

Machine learning algorithms can now outperform classic economic models in predicting quantities ranging from bargaining outcomes, to choice under uncertainty, to an individual's future jobs and wages. Yet this predictive accuracy comes at a…

We develop algorithms for performing semiparametric regression analysis in real time, with data processed as it is collected and made immediately available via modern telecommunications technologies. Our definition of semiparametric…

Precipitation nowcasting based on radar echoes plays a crucial role in monitoring extreme weather and supporting disaster prevention. Although deep learning approaches have achieved significant progress, they still face notable limitations.…

In this proof-of-concept work, we evaluate the performance of multiple machine-learning methods as statistical emulators for use in the analysis of agent-based models (ABMs). Analysing ABM outputs can be challenging, as the relationships…

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio…

As survey methods adapt to technological and societal changes, a growing body of research seeks to understand the tradeoffs associated with various sampling methods and administration modes. We show how the NSF-funded 2022 Collaborative…

Performance modeling typically relies on two antithetic methodologies: white box models, which exploit knowledge on system's internals and capture its dynamics using analytical approaches, and black box techniques, which infer relations…

Fair algorithm evaluation is conditioned on the existence of high-quality benchmark datasets that are non-redundant and are representative of typical optimization scenarios. In this paper, we evaluate three heuristics for selecting diverse…

Precipitation nowcasting is an important task for weather forecasting. Many recent works aim to predict the high rainfall events more accurately with the help of deep learning techniques, but such events are relatively rare. The rarity is…